SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in 2025

China.org.cn | January 26, 2026

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Bloomberg:

We're wondering how big of a challenge will it be to ensure economic growth gets off to a good start in the first quarter of this year, given a high base of comparison from 2025? And what is China doing to counter the challenge, especially in consumption and investments? And we're also wondering if you could provide the breakdown of GDP growth contribution from final contribution, and net export and growth capital formation in the fourth quarter and for the full year. Thank you.

Kang Yi:

Thank you for your questions. You've asked two questions. Let me start with the first one.

In 2025, China's economy forged ahead despite headwinds, shifting toward high-quality and innovation-driven development. All major expected targets were achieved, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality and laying a solid foundation for this year's economic development. Recent indicators show positive changes in production, prices and expectations, with the economy maintaining steady, positive momentum. In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size and the Index of Services Production both accelerated compared to the previous month. The CPI rose 0.8%, the highest increase since March 2023, and core CPI rose more than 1% for four consecutive months. The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, while month-on-month increases continued for three consecutive months. Both the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index returned to expansion territory. In terms of policy support, the State Council executive meeting deployed a package of coordinated fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, and relevant departments are accelerating implementation to expand it further. The policies aimed at promoting large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-ins of consumer goods have been further refined, with the first tranche of funding allocated ahead of schedule, creating favorable conditions for a solid economic start this year.

When looking at China's economy, we need to take a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term view. We should look not only at the current situation but also at long-term trends; not only at quarterly changes but also at annual trends; not only at the aggregate scale but also at the quality of development. Looking at 2026 as a whole, the supporting conditions and fundamental trends underpinning China's long-term economic growth remain unchanged, as does the momentum toward high-quality economic development. The foundations and conditions are in place to maintain stable, positive economic performance.

Regarding the second question, in 2025, the contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to economic growth were 52%, 15.3% and 32.7%, respectively. In the fourth quarter, the respective rates were 52.9%, 16% and 31.1%.

Thank you.

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