Red Star News:

We have noticed that the latest trade forecast released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in October has revised down its forecast of global trade growth in 2023. What do you think of China's current foreign trade? What are your predictions for its whole year growth rate? Thank you.

Lyu Daliang:

Thank you for your questions. Since the beginning of this year, the global economic recovery is yet to take hold, there has been a downturn in external demand and prices, as well as the impact of our large economic aggregate last year, meaning China's foreign trade growth is facing huge pressure. However, with the targeted implementation, deepening and consolidation of multiple domestic policies, enterprises took the initiative to seek innovation and make progress and have responded to changes and difficulties. The first three quarters have seen steady foreign trade performance and the figures have been roughly in line with the previous year and showed a positive growth trend.

Specifically, we have made stability our top priority, which is the fundamental aspect. First, the volume is stable. In the second and third quarters, the import and export volumes were both above 10 trillion yuan, maintaining historically high levels. Second, the main market players are stable. In the first three quarters, China's foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance increased to 597,000, and the import and export value of companies that have been active since 2020 accounted for nearly 80% of the total. Third, the market share is stable. According to our preliminary calculations, the first seven months witnessed the same data in the export market share as that of the previous year. Stability is a solid foundation for the high-quality development of China's foreign trade, and also a reflection of China's capability to resist pressure and stress.

While maintaining stability, we have also seen sound development in foreign trade. First, there is aa positive trend in general. The scale of imports and exports has expanded each quarter, with consistent monthly improvements. Particularly in September, despite having three working days fewer compared to the previous month and one working day fewer compared to the same month last year, the scale achieved a new monthly high for the year. If we exclude the impact of the difference in working days, the year-on-year growth in imports and exports in September was 0.9%. Second, private enterprises have showcased their vitality. In the first three quarters, the monthly growth rate of imports and exports for private enterprises surpassed the overall rate. The proportion of exports of independent brand products from private enterprises rose by a 0.7 percentage point to 22.7% compared to the same period last year. Brand recognition in sectors such as automobiles, engineering machinery, and electronic consumer goods has further strengthened. Third, the market potential remains high. In the first three quarters, China's two-way trade with emerging markets like Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America grew by 33.7%, 6.7%, and 5.1%, respectively, all surpassing the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade. Recently, China's two-way trade with traditional markets, such as the European Union and the United States, has also significantly improved. Fourth, platforms facilitating foreign trade have seen good growth. In the first three quarters, imports and exports in China's 21 pilot free trade zones reached 5.65 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.6%, accounting for an increasing share of China's overall foreign trade at 18.3%. The imports and exports of the Hainan Free Trade Port surged by 20.3%.

Regarding the future trend of foreign trade, we've noted that recently, concerns have been expressed by organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund about the fragmentation of global trade. The WTO has revised its forecast for this year's global merchandise trade growth downward from 1.7% to 0.8%, signaling that the world economy's recovery and sustainable development still face considerable challenges. The external environment for China's foreign trade remains intricate and challenging. However, it's crucial to acknowledge that positive factors for the improvement of China's economy continue to increase. As we continue to stabilize the scale and enhance the structure of foreign trade, our capability for maintaining stability has grown stronger, and we will be able to see greater improvements. We have valid reasons to remain confident in meeting the annual goals of promoting stability and enhancing the quality of foreign trade, while foreign trade continuing to buttress economic growth. Thank you.