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Does weak demand on the international market influence China's exports? What is your prediction regarding the development trend of foreign trade in the fourth quarter? Thank you.

Lyu Daliang:

Thank you for your questions. As you all know, since the beginning of this year, the global economy's recovery has been sluggish, and global trade development has encountered multiple challenges. Specifically, persistently weak external demand has directly impacted China's exports. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have promptly introduced a series of policies and initiatives to stabilize foreign trade, effectively alleviating difficulties for enterprises. Meanwhile, enterprises have taken proactive measures to address changes in international demand. They have secured orders, optimized their structures, and explored new markets, continuously expanding new opportunities for development. China's exports have demonstrated significant resilience in the face of difficulties and challenges. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, China's exports increased by 0.6%. Especially in the past two months, China's exports have shown more positive changes. The export volume in August and September continued to grow, with month-on-month increases of 1.2% and 5.5%, respectively, demonstrating a clear trend of steady recovery. To be specific:

First, export volume has resumed positive growth, and the recovery momentum has become more robust. Price and volume are two apparent factors that affect trade value. The decline in some monthly export values this year is primarily attributable to the decrease in export prices. Regarding volume, trade volume in August increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year, following year-on-year decreases in previous months, and year-on-year growth further rose to 7.9% in September.

Second, the export of traditional advantageous products has stabilized, and green products have continued to be growth drivers for exports. In the last two months, the export of traditional advantageous products within the consumer electronics industrial chain has shown a steady recovery. The export growth of integrated circuits has re-entered positive territory in August, with a year-on-year growth rate reaching 2.8% in September. In September, the export of mobile phones and computers grew by 124.9% and 8.3% month on month, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 14.3 and 13.4 percentage points from August. Concurrently, the export value of the "new three" products, namely lithium batteries, electronic passenger vehicles, and solar cells, has maintained double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters.

Third, in terms of the market, exports to major traditional markets have significantly improved, while exports to emerging markets have grown at a faster rate. In September, the year-on-year decline in China's exports to Japan, the EU, South Korea, and the U.S. narrowed by 14.1, 8.7, 8.1, and 0.5 percentage points from August, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the Middle East, Africa, Central Asia, and other emerging markets further increased.

Regarding the export development trend in the fourth quarter, we believe that the shaky global economic recovery still presents the greatest challenge to exports, but China's comprehensive competitive advantages in exports remain stable. According to statistical surveys of trade outlook conducted by Chinese customs, the proportion of enterprises with stable or increasing export orders in September increased by a 0.8 percentage point compared to August. Additionally, the proportion of enterprises expressing a positive outlook toward future exports rose by 1.3 percentage points. In general, with supportive policies, the efforts of enterprises, and the joint contributions of all parties, we anticipate that the steady growth in exports will be consolidated in the fourth quarter. Thank you.