Hong Kong Bauhinia Magazine:
Since the start of this year, global commodity prices have stayed firm. What does the NBS predict for the trend of this year's commodity prices? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thanks for your question. Since the start of this year, the international situation has been undergoing multiple changes, and global commodity prices have soared to a new high. According to the statistics of the World Bank, in March, the global energy price index rose 24.1% month-on-month, and the non-energy price index increased 8.1% month-on-month, resulting in the general index reaching a new high in recent years.
Global commodity prices may remain high in the next stage and are prone to fluctuations. From the point of supply, Russia is a major country exporting energy, grains, and chemical fertilizers, while Ukraine's corn and wheat export account for a larger global share. The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to a decline in the output of related products and an increase in export controls, which will affect the global commodity supply. From the perspective of demand, the sustained recovery of the global economy will support the growth of commodity demand. However, amid expectations of a supply shortage, the hoarding demand of some commodity importers has increased, exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand. Meanwhile, the geopolitical conflict has led to the sanction and anti-sanction practices between some countries and affected the efficiency of the global supply chain. Due to these factors, commodities' transportation and transaction costs have increased, putting further upward pressure on prices.
Therefore, against the backdrop of a tightening supply-demand relationship and increasing uncertainties in the global commodity market, high prices prone to fluctuations will be more likely to be witnessed.
Thank you.
