ThePaper.cn:
In 2021, the number of newborns nationwide hit a new low for recent years. How will this affect China's economy? When will China enter a negative population growth phase? In addition, how will the three-child policy impact future population growth? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
At the request of the SCIO, the National Bureau of Statistics and the seventh national census office released census data last year. Based on the data I just presented, your questions make a lot of sense. In 2021, China's population maintained steady growth.
First, the total population continued to grow. By the end of 2021, China had a population of 1.413 billion. The number of births totaled 10.62 million, and the number of deaths reached 10 million for the first time, registering a net increase of 480,000 and a natural growth rate of 0.34 per thousand.
Second, the working-age population remained relatively stable. By the end of 2021, the working-age population, or those between 16 and 59 was 882 million, accounting for 62.5% of the total. The population aged 60 and over was 267 million, among whom 200 million were aged 65 and above, making up 18.9% and 14.2%, respectively, of the total population.
Third, the urban population increased considerably. By the end of 2021, permanent residents in urban areas reached 914 million, an increase of more than 12 million over the end of the previous year, while permanent residents in rural areas were nearly 500 million. The urbanization rate of permanent residents registered 64.72%, 0.83 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year.
Fourth, the floating population grew significantly. By the end of 2021, the population who resided in areas other than their household registration reached 504 million, which was 11.53 million more than the previous year. Specifically, the floating population stood at 385 million, 8.85 million more than the previous year.
The birth decline you are concerned about resulted from multiple factors. The slowdown in population growth is an objective result stemming from China's economy, especially industrialization and urbanization, developing into a certain stage. Aging and fewer children are also common problems faced by developed countries and even some emerging economies. In 2021, China had fewer births than in the previous year, which led to a lower birth rate. The main reasons for this are as follows:
First, the number of women of childbearing age continued to decrease. In 2021, there were about 5 million fewer women of childbearing age – from 15 to 49 – than in the previous year; the number of those in their prime of childbearing age – from 21 to 35 – dropped by about 3 million.
Second, the fertility rate continued to fall. In recent years, shifting thoughts about childbearing and people delaying marriage and starting a family, coupled with factors involving the cost of childbearing, have made young people less willing to have a baby.
Third, to some extent, COVID-19 has also delayed the marriage and childbearing plans of young people. Multiple international studies found that fertility rates have decreased in many countries and regions since the outbreak of the pandemic. In 2020, both Japan and South Korea saw fewer births than in the previous year.
China's population will remain above 1.4 billion for some time to come.
First, the total number of women of childbearing age is relatively large. China has a large population base with more than 300 million women of childbearing age, and we are able to sustain over 10 million births every year. The total population will maintain a certain level of growth.
Second, the three-child policy will gradually generate effects. Over the past decade, policies including the two-child policy for couples in which either the husband or wife is from a single-child family, and the universal two-child policy have positively increased births. According to the seventh national census data, the number of children aged 0-14 in 2020 was over 30 million more than that in 2010, and the proportion of children rose by 1.35 percentage points, which was mainly driven by the two "two-child" polices. Among the births, the proportion of second children rose from about 30% in 2013 to about 43% in 2021. In May 2021, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed further optimizing the birth policy by allowing a couple to have three children and adopting supporting measures. Specific implementation schemes have been formulated in localities and the policy will gradually play its role.
Third, life expectancy has continued to rise. Significant progress in medical and health conditions, as well as continuous improvements to living standards, have led to a consistently rising life expectancy, and the fact that the number of deaths in China has been less than the number of births helps the total population maintain its growth trend. The potential of some delayed births will continue to be released in the future. All these factors will play a positive role in keeping the total population basically stable. Thank you.
