21st Century Business Herald:
China's central bank recently announced cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), which is interpreted as a move to ease policies in advance so as to address the significant downward pressure that the economy will be faced with in the second half of the year. What's your comment on this? At a symposium attended by experts and entrepreneurs held a couple of days ago, Premier Li Keqiang said that we should step up cross-cyclical regulation and address some particular cyclical risks. How to make the cross-cyclical regulation work? What are the cyclical risks currently facing the Chinese economy? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. I think your question is actually focusing on two aspects. One is about the economic outlook in the second half of this year, and the other is about the trajectory of macroeconomic policies.
Let me begin with the first question. Regarding the economic outlook, we can see from the data that the economy continued to recover steadily in the first half of this year, and the supply-demand cycle was unimpeded. The economic fundamentals have laid a good foundation for the economic performance in the second half of this year. In terms of the factors affecting the economic trajectory in the second half, the factors supporting the further recovery and improvement of the economy, in general, are gradually accumulating and increasing. First, the internal driving force for economic growth is becoming more powerful. In the first half of this year, the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth reached 80.9%, up 4.9 percentage points from the first quarter. Market sales also witnessed a steady recovery. The average growth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half-year over the past two years has been 4.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the first quarter. Investment has also been recovering steadily, with investment in fixed assets seeing a two-year average growth of 4.4% in the first half-year, up 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter. It shows that domestic demand is increasingly important in promoting economic growth. Second, growing confidence among market entities has been seen. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.9%, staying above the threshold for 16 months in a row. The non-manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI output index were both considerably above the threshold, indicating greater confidence among market entities in economic growth and growth dynamics. Third, the global economy has continued on its recovery trajectory, laying a foundation for the growth of external demand. The global composite PMI for June was 56.6%, which was among the best registered over the past 15 years. Global merchandise trade volume is expected to increase by 8% in 2021, according to the World Trade Organization's most recent forecast. An 8% projection shows that global trade recovery is getting faster, which ensures that external demand will maintain rapid growth.
While the economic fundamentals, as well as supply and demand, have maintained a stable performance with good momentum for growth, macroeconomic policies have continued to provide support for the real economy and more policies have gradually been adopted to support individually-owned businesses as well as small and micro businesses. These are conducive to alleviating difficulties and solving the problems enterprises are faced with and will also inject new momentum to the market. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, many external destabilizing factors and uncertainties remain. Domestically, we have to face the reality of unbalanced economic growth, caused in part by the rising prices of the raw materials that you mentioned, which have put pressure on small and micro businesses, especially those in the middle and lower reaches, in terms of their production and operation. However, considering the general fundamentals, supply-demand cycle, market confidence, and the increasingly strong domestic demand, China's economy is expected to maintain a sustained and stable recovery in the second half of the year.
Regarding future macroeconomic policies, as I said just now, this year's overall economy will deliver a stable performance with a consolidated foundation and a good momentum for growth. On the one hand, we should be aware that the overall trend is positive. On the other hand, we should also understand that the current environment at home and abroad is complicated and that the rise in bulk commodity prices in particular, is putting great pressure on enterprises in terms of costs. Given the prominent operational problems, we should act in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and focus on the present while keeping an eye on the future, ensuring cross-cyclical regulation and properly address possible cyclical risks. With a focus on fostering and boosting market entities, we need to press ahead with reforms to streamline administration, delegate power, improve regulation, and upgrade services to improve the business environment and provide more development opportunities for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, and lay a solid foundation for steady and sound economic growth. Thank you.
