SCIO briefing on China's economy Q1-Q3

Economy

China.org.cnUpdated:  October 19, 2018

CCTV:

As you said, the growth of GDP and some industrial indicators fell to some extent. Does it mean the economy faces many difficulties? And how would you comment on the current economic situations? Thanks. 

Mao Shenyong:

I would like to summarize the economic operation over the first three quarters into three points.

First, stability has been maintained. From the perspective of growth, over the first three quarters, GDP grew 6.7 percent year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for the realization of the objective of an annual growth rate of around 6.5 percent. From the perspective of employment, the nationally-surveyed urban unemployment rate in September was 4.9 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and also September 2017. More than 11 million new urban jobs were created, which means the annual job creation task has been completed a quarter in advance. From the price perspective, the CPI grew by 2.1 percent over the first three quarters, 0.1 percentage points higher than the level in the first two quarters. However, the growth of CPI over the first three quarters remained 2.0 percent, the same as the level achieved in the first half of this year, if the price rises of food and energy is not taken into account. From the perspective of residents' income, the average disposable personal income over the first three quarters increased 6.6 percent, the same figure as was established in the first half of this year, basically keeping pace with national economic growth. So, considering the indices of growth, employment, price and income, it is fair to say that the economy is operating stably in a rational zone.

Second, the momentum of progress has been maintained. The economic structure is going through a process of optimization and adjustment. As has been noted, from the perspective of industrial structure, the service sector's role as the bedrock has been consolidated. Over the first three quarters, the value-added achievements of the service industry increased by 7.7 percent, which is comparatively fast growth, contributing 60.8 percent of economic growth, 1.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Over the first three quarters, the service industry's share in GDP was 53.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points higher than last year. Besides, the sector's progress to a medium- and high-level has speeded up. The changes of the structure of demand indicate that the foundational role of consumption has been continuously strengthened. Over the first three quarters, consumption contributed to 78 percent of economic growth, 14 percentage points higher year on year. The structure of investment has improved as well, with the growth of investment in manufacturing rising for six straight months, while private investment growth has remained above eight percent. Meanwhile, the quality and efficiency of the economy have also been improving. 

Third, new driving forces are becoming stronger far more quickly. The supply-side structural reform has advanced solidly; the upgraded version of mass entrepreneurship and innovation initiatives is taking shape; new driving forces are developing fast. The number of market entities has increased by a large margin. Over the first three quarters, the number of newly registered enterprises exceeded five million, which translates to more than 18,000 new businesses every day. New industries develop fast. The growth of value added of the high-tech industries, equipment manufacturing industries and emerging industries of strategic importance, among the medium- and large-scale enterprises, respectively hit 11.8 percent, 8.6 percent and 8.8 percent, markedly higher than other industries. New types of industries are obviously prospering. The value of online retail sales of physical commodities increased by 27.7 percent, for instance. The development of new driving forces has gathered momentum for the optimizing of economic structure and steady economic operation.

In brief, the economy is operating within a rational range. The long-term stable and progressive fundamentals of the economy will continue. Meanwhile, it is known that the external environment has obviously changed, and the stable economic growth has slowed down slightly. We will act according to the policies made by the central authorities to ensure stable development of the job market, financial markets, foreign trade, foreign capital sector and the investment sector, so as to ensure the stability and health of economic growth. 

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