With the Chinese mainland's steadily growing economy, Hong Kong will gradually regain its economic growth momentum as the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government implements multiple economic relief measures, experts have said.
Hong Kong has recently seen underperformance in export, employment and some other aspects. Observers believe that multiple internal and external factors have led to a slowdown in Hong Kong's momentum of economic recovery.
Data released by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council showed that Hong Kong's export index for the first quarter of 2022 was 24.7, down 12.5 points from the previous quarter, recording a downward trend for the third consecutive quarter.
Hong Hao, managing director and chief strategist of the Bank of Communications (International), said the extent of Hong Kong's economic slowdown will depend largely on the development of its epidemic situation.
Liang Haiming, a Hong Kong economist and chairman of China Silk Road iValley Research Institute, said the recent economic slowdown is due to volatility in the peripheral markets and mounting geopolitical tensions coupled with the epidemic situation in Hong Kong, which resulted in continued damage to the Hong Kong economy.
In order to lower the rising unemployment rate under the epidemic, the HKSAR government launched a new round of Employment Support Scheme, which is expected to involve 26 billion to 31 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 3.3 billion to 3.96 billion U.S. dollars) to benefit 1.1 million to 1.3 million employees in Hong Kong.
A new round of the Consumption Voucher Scheme is also launched, with 5,000-Hong Kong-dollar (about 640 U.S. dollars) vouchers of Phase I to be disbursed in April, valued at over 30 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 3.8 billion U.S. dollars).
"It is hoped that the scheme will relieve the public's pressure in the face of the epidemic and will help the business of small and medium-sized enterprises," said Paul Chan, financial secretary of the HKSAR government.
Liang noted that as personal consumption accounts for more than 60 percent of Hong Kong's GDP, the new round of the Consumption Voucher Scheme will help stimulate the retail market and support Hong Kong's economy.
With the full support of the central government and concerted efforts of all sectors of the Hong Kong community in the fight against the epidemic, Hong Kong's economy will gradually recover, Liang said.
Observers believe that the epidemic has the short-term impact. Hong Kong's economy will be able to overcome the challenges with its own unique advantages and resilience. They are still confident in Hong Kong's competitiveness in the long run.
"As long as the epidemic situation is under control, Hong Kong will still have its attractiveness and a good economic outlook when traveling between places is resumed," Paul Chan told a recent press conference.
An assessment report released by the International Monetary Fund earlier this month reaffirmed Hong Kong's status as a major international financial center and agreed that Hong Kong's financial sector continued to expand and develop even during the epidemic.
Yang Yuchuan, a professor with the Hong Kong Financial Services Institute, believes that once the epidemic is controled and exchanges between Hong Kong and the mainland resume, Hong Kong's economy is expected to achieve an even better development.
Liang said that the mainland's economy maintains steady growth and is the firm backup for Hong Kong. With the full support of the central government, Hong Kong's economy will regain growth momentum when the epidemic is contained. (1 U.S. dollar equals 7.8 HK dollars)
