CRI:
Government data for the first half of this year showed that industrial profits grew 19.1 percent in June year on year, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month's growth. Does the growth represent a turnaround in the real economy? And what will the economy be like in the second half of this year? What about the industrial profits?
Xing Zhihong:
With the deepened supply-side structural reform this year, the relationship between supply and demand has been improved, and we also saw a recovery in industrial product prices and industrial companies' operating conditions. According to the June data released this morning, we can see the following positive changes:
Firstly, profits maintained steady growth. The profits of industrial enterprises with annual revenue of 20 million yuan or more from their main business operations rose by 19.1 percent from the year before, up 2.4 and 5.1 percentage points from May and April respectively. Profits of large-scale industrial enterprises for the first half year increased by 22 percent from a year earlier, with growth level up 15.8 percentage points year on year.
Secondly, profits margin kept growing. The profits margin of industrial enterprises earning more than 20 million yuan from their main business operations increased 6.35 percent, up 0.29 percentage points from a year earlier.
Thirdly, the profits structure has been improved. Starting from the Q2,there's a new development in industrial profits growth. Industries upstream shared a smaller part in the newly-added profits, while industries in the middle and downstream shared more. Of the newly-added profits in June, the equipment manufacturing industry shared 40.7 percent of the total, up 11.3 percentage points from May; high-technology industries accounted for 19.3 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from May. As a typical upstream industry, the mining sector's portion of profits decreased by 13.4 percentage points from May, a fall for the second consecutive month.
Reasons for these positive changes in industrial enterprises' profits are as follow: firstly, we maintained a steady growth in market demand, and speeded up selling. In June, income from industrial enterprises' main business operations increased by 13.7 percent from a year earlier, up 0.6 percentage points than the May growth. This year, income from industrial enterprises' main business operations maintained double-digit growth, and the turnover of finished products was also speeded up. The turnover time of finished industrial products was 13.7 days in June, 0.8 days less than May. A number of the 34 industries in the second quarter of this year maintained price growth, showing market demand is increasing, which is also a major reason for the industrial enterprises to continue steady growth.
Secondly, the effect of taxes, fees and other costs cut was now felt. The government has been pushing forward supply-side reform since last year, and reducing costs is one of the major tasks. By cutting the taxes, fees and other costs relating to human resources, land, logistics, and systematic trade, industrial enterprises reduced their costs by 0.18 yuan per 100 yuan of income from their main business operations.
Thirdly, the upgrading and optimized supply strengthened the industrial enterprises' earning power. Under supply-side structural reform and innovation-driven development strategy, industrial enterprises proactively coped with the changes in market, and took effective measures to improve their equipment, crafts and technology. We can see that, in the first half of the year, not only the emerging industries maintained a good momentum, but also the traditional industries improved their operations through upgrading. Take the textile and garment industry as an example. This traditional industry rose by 12 percent in the first half of the year, up 9.6 percentage points from last year. Among the 41 sectors, 38 saw increased profits based on the improvements mentioned above.
Nikkei:
Market interest rates and mortgage rates both increased in the first half of this year. How will the increase impact the performance of the Chinese economy in the second half of this year?
Wang Zhijun:
China's prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy, especially the supply-side structural reforms, have enabled the national economy to maintain stable and sound growth in the first half of this year. As Mr. Yang said just now, China will continue such policies in the second half of this year.
To cope with any possible impact from rate moves, we will maintain a prudent monetary policy, emphasize preemptive adjustment and fine tuning, and ensure moderate credit growth and stable liquidity so that interest rates remain at a reasonable level.
I believe China is able to sustain sound economic growth by using monetary policy instruments to offset the impact of interest rate moves.
Financial Times:
As has just been mentioned, it is very important to curb systematic risk. Could you please explain what kind of risk this refers to? In what circumstances would the highest probability appear? Which sector, for instance, will face such risk? What does systematic risk mean exactly? Thank you.
Yang Weimin:
Systematic risk refers to the risk that will affect the overall economy and the entire society. Definitely, it can be caused by small risks of different sectors and aspects rather than one sector alone. The subprime crisis, for example, didn't look like systematic risk, but it finally resulted in one, as it triggered a financial crisis in the United States and touched off the global financial crisis.
What we mean by guarding against systematic risk is to prevent those small risk points of different sectors, including interbank business, local governmental debt, and debt defaults of some State-owned enterprises (SOE) and a high leverage ratio. We have to identify, find and deal with those risks as soon as possible. By handle them in this way we can prevent small risks from becoming huge systematic risk in the end and doing more serious harm to Chinese economy. So, we balance the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention even at the cost of sacrificing something in other aspects now.
In the second half of this year, we will work on deleveraging, which is the source of risks. The direction of deleveraging is unchanged. Definitely, deleveraging will undergo a lengthy process with priorities, as the leverage ratio of different industries and sectors varies. It was stressed at the National Financial Work Conference that deleveraging of SOEs should have top priority. If SOE deleveraging is achieved, the leverage aspect of the entire enterprise sector will go down and leverage of the whole national economy will decline as well, which is how to prevent dangers at source. We will not maintain growth at the mercy of a rebounding leverage ratio. The economy of the first half year continues to be stable and is getting better. Meanwhile, the trend that the macro leverage ratio was rising too rapidly in previous years is now under control to some extent. That means both deleveraging and stable growth can be achieved. We are able to maintain a stable economy, and to curb the leverage ratio to some extent as well. Thank you.
CGTN:
My question is about employment. This year's economic statistics show the current employment situation is good, and there is no sign of any slowdown in the reduction of industrial overcapacity. At the same time, the number of graduates nationwide this year has hit an all-time high. How can we maintain this good momentum? Thank you.
Xing Zhihong:
There has been steady and sound development in the national economy since the beginning of this year. More positive changes have taken place in economic development, among them the sustained improved employment is a bright spot. I think the main reasons for this are as follows.
First, the effect of entrepreneurship and innovation initiatives. The implementation of entrepreneurship and innovation initiatives has further promoted market vitality and social creativity. New enterprises have emerged in large numbers, bringing about many new job openings. Statistics from relevant departments show the number of newly registered enterprises reached 291,000 in the first half of this year, an increase of 11.1 percent over the same period of last year. The average daily number of newly-registered enterprises reached 16,000. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, about 70 percent of the country's new jobs last year came from sectors regarded as new economic drivers.
Second, the economic effect. Presently, China's economic development has entered the period of the new normal. During the economic structural transition period, economic growth has steadily expanded instead of narrowing. In the first half of this year, GDP growth reached 2.35 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 200 billion yuan over the same period of last year. As long as our labor productivity is holds steady, the expansion of economic growth will mean a steady expansion of new employment in this regard.
Third, the effect of structural adjustment. The service industry began to exceed the secondary industry in terms of the proportion occupied in the national economy in 2013, and the proportion exceeded 50 percent in 2015.It can be said that China's economy has entered a service-leading development stage. Compared with the manufacturing sector, the service industry is a more powerful employer, because it has many labor-intensive sectors. The growing service industry is leading to a more flexible employment rate.According to our estimates, every one percentage point of GDP growth meant 1.7 million new non-agricultural jobs in the2012-2016 period, an increase of 300,000 over the 2009-2011 period. This is a tribute to economic structural adjustment.
Fourth, the effect of policies. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have always adhered to the policy of giving priority to employment and have implemented other positive policies to cope with employment pressures.In supply-side structural reform, the scaling down of overcapacity in some industries has brought about such problems as the resettlement of laid-off workers. Meanwhile, the number of college graduates is unprecedentedly high in China this year. The central government has taken a series of positive measures aimed at these key groups. Let me give you an example. Last year, the central government allocated 100billion yuan in special funds for the resettlement of laid-off workers, and introduced an employment and entrepreneurship action plan for college graduates. All these approaches have provided a stable environment for the job market and further improved employment.
Thanks to these four reasons, China has maintained steady and sound employment development momentum. Thank you.
Bloomberg News:
The nation's economy has been stable overall, but there's great regional divergence. Gansu, Hainan and Tianjin, for instance, have decelerated in the first half by more than one percentage point from the first quarter. How can you explain that and what can policy-makers do to address these regional differences?
Cong Liang:
As regions differ in terms of their development stage and factor endowment, they naturally differ in economic growth.Just as you mentioned,the growth in Gansu and Hainan didslow down somewhat. However, for these two provinces, greatpriority should be given toenvironmental protection rather thaneconomic growth. Hainan is an island in the tropical rainforest zone. Its ecology can be found nowhere else in China, so its protection deserves greater attention than economic growth. Gansu's Qilian Mountain is regarded as China's "water tower."If the mountain were polluted, the entire Yellow River and Yangtze River networks would suffer. Therefore, for such regions, environmental protection is more important than economic growth. Thank you.
Yang Weimin:
I have something more to say on this issue. China has a large territory, with natural and geographical conditions differing greatly between regions. The natural environment in Qinghai and Tibet in the west is very different from Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the east. That's why we create policies for functional zones to promote regional development. Under these policies, some regions can concentrate on industrialization and urbanization, while some perform the role of an agricultural zone. As major producers of agricultural products, these zones should not put too much effort into industrialization and urbanization. Likewise, the main responsibility for some regions is ecological conservation.
You mentioned Hainan just now. The province's main responsibility is protecting its ecological environment, thus serving as a "back garden" for the Chinese people. Therefore, it's reasonable for Hainan's economic growth rate to be a bit lower than some others. This was the necessary consequence of the central authorities' policies and new, green development methods. I think the result is positive.
Regarding Gansu, besides concerns on ecological conservation, the province is also handicapped by natural condition that is not as good as eastern provinces. The mining industry makes up a rather high proportion in Gansu's economic structure. As the official of National Bureau of Statistics has just said, profits in the mining sector have continued to drop; hence, in regions where the mining industry accounts for a large proportion of the economic structure, it's normal that the economic growth rate would be lower than others.
When analyzing economic development in different regions, we can't use a one-size-fits-all standard. What we care about most now is whether their development fits green ideas, and whether they have fulfilled their functions and promoted development as required. This is different from our previous appraisal of regional performance. We changed our way of thinking because great efforts have been undertaken to advocate ecological progress and green development after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Thank you.
CNR:
As a vital part of regional economy, economic development of northeastern China has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. In particular, as Mr. Yang Weimin just mentioned, economic development there saw a recovery this year after touching bottom. Could you talk about China's economic development in the first half of this year from the perspective of regional development? What's more, will this recovery in the northeast be sustainable? Thanks.
Cong Liang:
As we have mentioned before, due to various factor endowments and geographic conditions among regions, their development differs from each other. However, this year, guided by the new development philosophy, the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions interacted and coordinated well. Economic development of eastern China maintained a good and powerful momentum. The economy of central and western China grew steadily, and the northeast underwent a recovery.
As the leading region of the country, eastern China contributes over 50 percent of the total national economy. In the first half of the year, the growth of industrial value added in the top five provinces - Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, Henan and Zhejiang - all surpassed the national average, thus providing a steady base for China's economy. Especially, the transformation and upgrading carried out in eastern China played a vital role in leading the economy. In Zhejiang Province, the high technology and equipment manufacturing industries contributed over 50 percent of industrial growth. And in Jiangsu Province, 3D printing and industrial robots saw a growth rate of 70 percent. Some cities have achieved a lot during their transformation and upgrading. For example, in Shenzhen, its per capita GDP is over US$25,000, so it has avoided being caught in any "middle income trap." And its GDP growth, featuring high quality, great benefits and advanced technology, reached 8.8 percent in the first half of this year. Through these facts, we could see China's great economic development capability and potential.
Regarding the central and western regions, their development index is higher than the whole country, indicating they have gained obvious advantages as late comers. Over the last two years, with industry relocation and technology transfer from the eastern regions, the central and western regions saw their industry grow at a rather high rate.
Many provinces enhanced growth momentum by raising the quality and returns of development, and promoting industrial upgrading. For example, in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, after cutting excessive industrial capacity and treating zombie enterprises, the total corporate profit increased by 30 percent, much faster than the whole country. In Hunan province, which encouraged its equipment manufacturing industry to integrate with the software industry, the growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry was double that of the industrial sector as a whole. In Anhui province, the growth rate of strategic emerging industries was over 20 percent, which is common in the central and western regions.
In the northeast region, the pressure of economic growth has been high in recent years. But from this year, the signs of stability are increasing. The growth rate of industry was 1 percent in the first half of the year. Last year, it decreased 3.1 percent. The drop in investment has slowed down. Meanwhile, some key industries are improving in terms of profitability. In previous years, the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including the mining industries, experienced great losses, but their profitability have markedly improved now.
Meanwhile, proactive efforts have been made to promote the three key initiatives: the Belt and Road Initiative, the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the development of the Yangtze River economic belt. Much headway has been made in promoting the Belt and Road Initiative. Steady progress has been made in the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and in the projects to relieve Beijing of functions nonessential to its role as China's capital. The development of the Yangtze River economic belt is centred upon environmental protection, and the restoration of the whole ecological environment has achieved substantial results. Overall, the coordinated and integrated development between regions is clearly progressing well. New growth poles and growth belts are gradually forming. Deep-rooted problems in some regions are gradually being solved, and some have achieved obvious improvement. Thank you.
The Wall Street Journal:
I have a question regardingsupply-side structural reform. The expert just mentioned that the capacity of the coal industry has dropped sharply. We noticed that coal enterprises made a profit of about 100 billion yuan in the first half of the year thanks to the cuts in coal capacity and the rise in coal prices. However, rising coal prices will result inrising costsfor the coal-based power industry and the losses of coal-based power enterprises reached nearly 100 billion yuan in the first half of this year. Asadecision maker are you aware of this problem? The cuts in capacity in one industry may exert negative impacts on other related industries. If possible, will you be taking measures to avoid this phenomenonas supply-side reform continues in the future? Thank you.
Yang Weimin:
This is a good question. We areaware of the relationship between the upstream coal industry and the downstreampower industries, irrespective ofsupply-side structural reforms.As coal prices rise, the profits of the coal-based power industriesmay decrease. This continues to be a difficult problem to solve during China's long-term economic development process.
Currently, coal prices have rebounded very quickly due to complicated factors. Therefore, the practice of cutting capacity duringthe previous stage may need some fine-tuning for the next step. We will makebetter use of the measures enacted forremovingZombie enterprises as well utilizingmarket and legal approaches. We will also make less use of administrative orders in the future capacity-cutting process. Capacity cuts aim to correct distortions in the allocation of elements, and through reform, establish a more normal market order in theupstream-downstream relationship. But it needs some time. The conflicts will gradually ease in the future process of dissolving excess capacity and disposing Zombie enterprises. Thank you.
Xi Yanchun:
Thanks again for the release. In the next days, we will invite other economic departments to attend the SCIO briefings introducing China's economic situation. Please stay tuned for more interview notices published on theSCIO APP. Thank you. That's all for today's press conference.