Read in Chinese
Speaker:
Ms. Liu Aihua, spokesperson and chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the NBS
Chairperson:
Ms. Xing Huina, deputy director general of the Press Bureau of the State Council Information Office (SCIO) and spokesperson of the SCIO
Date:
Sept. 14, 2024
Xing Huina:
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). This is a regular briefing on China's economic data. Today. We are joined by Ms. Liu Aihua, spokesperson and chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director general of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the NBS. Ms. Liu will brief you on China's national economic performance in August 2024 and then take your questions.
Now, I'll give the floor to Ms. Liu for her introduction.
Liu Aihua:
Now, I'll brief you on the economic performance in August this year.
The national economy was generally stable in August this year. In August, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. All regions and departments adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, strengthened macro-regulation, and strove to promote high-quality development. As a result, production and demand sustained a recovery, employment and prices were basically stable, and high-quality development continued to move ahead. The national economy maintained stability in general while making steady progress.
First, the industrial production increased steadily with fast growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing.
In August, the total value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% year on year, or up by 0.32% month on month. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining went up by 3.7% year on year, manufacturing up by 4.3%, and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 6.8%. The value added of equipment manufacturing increased by 6.4% year on year, and that of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.6%, 1.9 percentage points and 4.1 percentage points faster than that of the total value added by industrial enterprises above designated size. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state-holding enterprises was up by 3.6% year on year; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 5.0%; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 2.8%; and that of private enterprises was up by 4.5%. In terms of products, the production of new-energy vehicles, service robots and integrated circuits grew by 30.5%, 20.1% and 17.8% year on year, respectively. In the first eight months, the total value added of industrial enterprises above designated size went up by 5.8% year on year. In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index stood at 49.1%, and the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 52.0%. In the first seven months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size were 4,099.2 billion yuan, up by 3.6% year on year.
Second, the service sector continued to recover and the modern services sector developed well.
In August, the Index of Services Production grew by 4.6% year on year. Specifically, that of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, financial intermediation, transport, storage and postal services grew by 12.1%, 9.4%, 5.7% and 5.2% year on year, respectively, which was 7.5 percentage points, 4.8 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points and 0.6 percentage point faster than that of the Index of Services Production. In the first eight months, the Index of Services Production increased by 4.9% year on year. In the first seven months, the business revenue of service enterprises above designated size went up by 7.4% year on year. In August, the Business Activity Index for Services was 50.2% and the Business Activity Expectation Index for Services was 55.4%. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, and culture, sports and recreation stayed within the high expansion range of 55.0% and above.
Third, the market sales kept increasing and online retail sales grew rapidly.
In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,872.6 billion yuan, up by 2.1% year on year, or down by 0.01% month on month. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 3,357.5 billion yuan, up by 1.8% year on year; and that in rural areas reached 515.1 billion yuan, up by 3.9%. Grouped by types of consumption, the retail sales of goods were 3,437.5 billion yuan, up by 1.9%; the income of catering was 435.1 billion yuan, up by 3.3%. Certain basic living goods and upgraded goods sold well. The retail sales of grain, oil, and food and that of traditional Chinese and western medicines by enterprises above designated size went up by 10.1% and 4.3% respectively; the retail sales of telecommunication equipment and that of household appliances and audio-video equipment went up by 14.8% and 3.4% respectively. In the first eight months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31,245.2 billion yuan, up by 3.4% year on year. The online retail sales were 9,635.2 billion yuan, up by 8.9% year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 8,014.3 billion yuan, up by 8.1%, accounting for 25.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In the first eight months, the retail sales of services grew by 6.9% year on year.
Fourth, the investment in fixed assets scaled up and investment in high-tech industries grew quickly.
In the first eight months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 32,938.5 billion yuan, up by 3.4% year on year; the investment in fixed assets was up by 7.7% with the investment in real estate development deducted. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure grew by 4.4% year on year, that in manufacturing grew by 9.1%, and that in real estate development declined by 10.2%. The floor space of new commercial buildings sold was 606.02 million square meters, down by 18.0% year on year; the total sales of new commercial buildings were 5,972.3 billion yuan, down by 23.6%. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went up by 2.9% year on year, that in the secondary industry up by 12.1%, and that in the tertiary industry down by 0.8%. The private investment declined by 0.2% year on year, and increased by 6.3% with the investment in real estate development deducted. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 10.2% year on year, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 9.6% and 11.7%, respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment and in manufacturing of electronic and communication equipment grew by 34.4% and 10.0%, respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in professional technical services and in e-commerce services grew by 27.7% and 16.8%, respectively. In August, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 0.16% month on month.
Fifth, imports and exports of goods grew quickly and trade structure continued to optimize.
In August, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,752.3 billion yuan, up by 4.8% year on year. The value of exports was 2,200.8 billion yuan, up by 8.4%, and the value of imports was 1,551.5 billion yuan, maintaining the same level year on year. The trade balance was 649.3 billion yuan in surplus. In the first eight months, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 28,583.8 billion yuan, up by 6.0%. The total value of exports was 16,455.2 billion yuan, up by 6.9%. The total value of imports was 12,128.6 billion yuan, up by 4.7%. In the first eight months, the imports and exports of general trade went up by 4.6%, accounting for 64.6% of the total value of imports and exports. The imports and exports by private enterprises went up by 10.5%, accounting for 55.1% of the total value of imports and exports, 2.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The exports of mechanical and electrical products went up by 8.8%, accounting for 59.1% of the total value of exports.
Sixth, employment was generally stable and urban surveyed unemployment rate increased slightly.
In the first eight months, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the same period last year. In August, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.4% and that of population with non-local household registration was 4.9%, among which, the rate of the population with non-local agricultural household registration was 4.6%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.4%. The employees of enterprises worked 48.7 hours per week on average.
Seventh, increase of consumer prices expanded and producer prices for industrial products declined.
In August, the consumer price index (CPI) went up by 0.6% year on year, 0.1 percentage point faster than that in July, or up by 0.4% month on month. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol were up by 2.1% year on year; clothing up by 1.4%; housing maintaining the same level year on year; articles and services for daily use up by 0.2%; transportation and communication down by 2.7%; education, culture, and entertainment up by 1.3%; medical services and health care up by 1.3%; and other articles and services up by 3.4%. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the price for grain went down by 0.1%, fresh fruits up by 4.1%, pork up by 16.1%, and fresh vegetables up by 21.8%. The core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 0.3% year on year. In the first eight months, the CPI went up by 0.2% year on year.
In August, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 1.8% year on year, or down by 0.7% month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 0.8% year on year, or down by 0.6% month on month. In the first eight months, the producer prices and the purchasing prices for industrial products dropped by 1.9% and 2.1% year on year, respectively.
Generally speaking, the national economy was generally stable in August with steady progress in pursuing high-quality development. However, we should be aware that adverse impacts arising from the changes in the external environment are increasing, effective demand remains insufficient at home, and the sustained economic recovery is still facing multiple difficulties and challenges. At the next stage, we must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the guiding principles of the 20th CPC National Congress and the second and third plenary sessions of the 20th CPC Central Committee, adhere to the principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, and fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts. We must accelerate efforts to create a new pattern of development, take reform as the driving force in promoting steady growth, making structural adjustments and guarding against risks, strive to promote high-quality development, and speed up the implementation of the reform tasks and policy measures so as to consolidate the foundation for sustained economic recovery and growth.
That is all for my introduction for the national economic performance in August this year.
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Xing Huina:
Please raise your hand if you have a question. Before asking, please state the name of your media organization.
CMG:
China's economy has performed steadily this year, maintaining a positive trend. How would you evaluate the economic indicators for August? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. In August, domestic and international conditions became more complex and severe. High temperatures, heavy rain and floods continued to impact economic activities. Facing these challenges, various regions and departments thoroughly implemented decisions from the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. The effects of macroeconomic policies continued to emerge. The economy remained generally stable based on four key indicators we use to assess the macroeconomy — growth, employment, prices and balance of international payments. Meanwhile, transformation and upgrading proceeded steadily, high-quality development achieved new progress, and the economy continued its trend of steady improvement.
First, production remained generally stable, with continued upgrading trends. In agriculture, early rice production held steady this year. Local governments strengthened field management, and most agricultural areas saw favorable conditions. Autumn crops are currently growing normally. Hog farming efficiency improved, with increases in both inventory and slaughter numbers. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 4.5% year on year in August. Equipment manufacturing continued to play a stabilizing role, with industrial upgrading and the shift to new growth drivers becoming increasingly evident. In August, equipment manufacturing's added value rose 6.4% year on year, contributing 47.9% to the total added value of all industrial enterprises above designated size. The electronics industry maintained double-digit growth, while high-tech manufacturing increased 8.6%. The production of smart, green products such as virtual reality devices, smartwatches, and new energy vehicles has continued to grow rapidly. The service sector production index increased 4.6% year on year in August. Accommodation and catering saw faster growth than the previous month, boosted by summer tourism. Modern service industries performed well, with information transmission, software and IT services growing 12.1% and leasing and business services growing 9.4% in terms of production index.
Second, domestic demand continued to expand with ongoing structural optimization. In terms of consumption, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 2.1% year on year in August, with restaurant revenue growing 3.3%, 0.3 percentage point faster than the previous month. Green and digital consumption showed lively activity, while service consumption potential continued to grow. Online-offline retail integration expanded the scope of consumption and improved consumer experiences. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, sales of new energy vehicles in August increased 43.2% year on year. From January to August, online sales of physical goods increased 8.1% year on year, significantly faster than the overall growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods. Service retail sales increased 6.9%, 3.9 percentage points faster than retail sales of goods in the same period. In terms of investment, fixed asset investment rose 3.4% year on year from January to August, with high-tech industry investment growing 10.2%, maintaining double-digit growth for six consecutive months, providing strong support for nurturing and developing new growth drivers.
Third, employment remained stable overall, and consumer prices increased slightly. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, up 0.1 percentage point from July, mainly due to college graduates entering the job market. The employment situation for migrant workers was relatively good, with the surveyed unemployment rate of the population with non-local agricultural household registration dropping by 0.3 percentage point to 4.6% in August compared to the previous month. Consumer prices increased due to high temperatures and rainy weather. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month on month in August, the second consecutive monthly increase. Year on year, the CPI rose 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month, continuing a moderate upward trend.
Fourth, foreign trade showed growth, and foreign exchange reserves continued to grow. Despite the slowing global economic recovery and weakened manufacturing activity worldwide, China's total imports and exports in August rose 4.8% year on year, reaching a record high for the month. Exports grew 8.4%, up 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. The trade structure continued to improve, with the cumulative growth rate of machinery and electronics products exports accelerating by half a percentage point, accounting for nearly 60% of total exports. Products such as automobiles and integrated circuits continued to show strength, with their export values maintaining rapid growth. The Belt and Road Initiative continued to show results, with China's imports and exports to partner nations increasing 7% year on year from January to August, outpacing overall import-export growth. At the end of August, foreign exchange reserves increased $31.8 billion from July, remaining above $3.2 trillion for the year. The yuan showed a trend of steady appreciation.
Looking at the overall performance for the first eight months of the year, the scale of major indicators continued to expand steadily, with growth rates remaining largely stable. From January to August, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment hit 31.2 trillion yuan and 32.9 trillion yuan, respectively, highlighting the potential of China's super-large market. China's total value of imports and exports reached 28.6 trillion yuan, maintaining its global market share. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, the service production index, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment grew by 5.8%, 4.9%, 3.4%, and 3.4%, respectively, all remaining consistent with the January-July period. These figures indicate that China's macroeconomy remains stable overall, and the trend of steady economic operation continues.
In summary, China's economy remained generally stable in August, with continued progress in high-quality development. However, we must recognize that the international environment has become more complex and severe, with increasing instability and uncertainty. Domestic issues such as insufficient demand persist, the transition between old and new growth drivers involves some difficulties, and certain industries and enterprises still face operational challenges. In the next phase, we must continue to thoroughly implement the decisions of the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and meetings of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau. We must strengthen macroeconomic regulation, deepen innovation-driven development, fully tap domestic demand potential, enhance market vitality, stabilize market expectations, and promote both qualitative and quantitative economic growth. Thank you.
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Zhinews of Shenzhen Satellite TV:
How would you evaluate the highlights of August's industrial data? And what is the current overall situation of industrial production within China? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
In August, due to a higher comparison base from the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased compared to the previous month. Excluding seasonal factors, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size saw a month-on-month increase of 0.32%, maintaining a growth trend. Cumulatively, in the January–August period, its growth was 5.8%, maintaining overall stability. Most industries, regions and products achieved growth, with significant trends toward the development of high-end, intelligent and green industries. The high-quality development of the industrial sector continued to advance. The sector is characterized by four features:
First, over 80% of regions, nearly 80% of industries and more than 50% of products achieved growth. In August, out of the 31 provincial-level regions nationwide, 25 saw growth in added value, with the proportion hitting 80.6%. Among the 41 major industries in the industrial sector, 32 industries saw year-on-year growth in added value, with the proportion close to 80%. Among the 619 industrial products surveyed, 339 products saw year-on-year growth in output, with the proportion reaching 54.8%.
Second, the equipment manufacturing industry continued to take a prominent role as an "anchor" of industrial growth. In August, the added value of equipment manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year on year, maintaining fast growth and contributing 47.9% to the growth of the total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, close to half. From January to August, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry accounted for 33.5% of industrial enterprises above designated size; and the proportion continued to rise from the January-July period and has remained above 30% for 18 consecutive months. Profits for the equipment manufacturing industry maintained stable growth. In the first seven months, the equipment manufacturing industry's profits increased by 6.1% year on year, 2.5 percentage points higher than the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size; and they accounted for 35.1% of the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, an increase of 0.8 percentage point compared to the same period last year.
Third, new drivers for manufacturing development continued to grow. With the continuous application of technological and innovative achievements as well as digital technology, process updates, digital empowerment and green and low-carbon initiatives will help to drive industrial upgrading and new drivers will continue to grow. In August, the added value of high-tech manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 8.6% year on year, with electronic and communication equipment manufacturing growing by 11.4% and maintaining double-digit growth for 10 consecutive months. The added value of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing increased by 54% year on year. Navigation, surveying, mapping, meteorological and marine special instrument manufacturing grew by 65.1%, while electronic measuring instrument manufacturing increased by 12.6%. All these maintained a rather fast growth momentum. The new energy industry also saw solid growth. In August, the output of new energy vehicles and charging piles increased by 30.5% and 97% year on year, respectively, both registering quite a rapid growth. The output of polysilicon and solar ultra-clear glass — both green materials within the new energy industrial chain — increased by 20.3% and 49%, respectively.
Fourth, the export of industrial products continued to be a driving force. In August, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year on year, unchanged from the previous month and maintaining relatively fast growth. From January to August, its cumulative growth rate was 4.1%, and the rate accelerated month by month this year. Among the 39 major export industries, 32 industries saw export growth, with the proportion reaching 82.1%. The export delivery value of the computer, communication and electronic equipment manufacturing industry, which accounts for nearly 40% of the main export industries, grew by 3.4% year on year, 0.9 percentage point higher than the previous month. The export delivery value of automobile manufacturing grew by 15.9%, 2.9 percentage points higher than the previous month and maintaining double-digit growth for nine consecutive months. The export delivery values for general equipment, special equipment, metal products as well as railway, ship and aerospace industries all achieved double-digit growth.
In the next stage, the effects of macro policies, such as implementing major national strategies, building up security capacity in key areas as well as promoting large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods, will take hold. As new fields and arenas, such as artificial intelligence, continues to expand, and the domestic large-scale market and rich scenario application technologies grow, all these will be conducive for boosting domestic demand and extending space for development. Overall, the industrial sector is expected to maintain a stable development trend.
That concludes my response.
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Phoenix TV:
In August, the year-on-year CPI increase expanded, reaching its highest level in the past six months. What are the underlying factors behind this? What is your outlook for future trends? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Influenced by factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall, the national CPI showed a seasonal month-on-month increase in August, and its year-on-year growth was larger than that of the previous month.
First, looking at the month-on-month change, the CPI increased by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Specifically, food prices increased by 3.4%, contributing approximately 0.6 percentage point to the month-on-month increase in the CPI. Non-food prices decreased by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage point to the month-on-month decrease in the CPI. In the food category, mainly influenced by high summer temperatures and localized heavy rainfalls, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh mushrooms, fresh fruits and eggs increased, collectively contributing 0.49 percentage point to the month-on-month increase in the CPI. Pork prices increased by 7.3%, contributing 0.1 percentage point to the month-on-month increase in the CPI. In the non-food category, mainly influenced by fluctuations in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices decreased by 3%. With the school season coming, due to a decline in demand for travel, airplane ticket prices and travel prices decreased by 5.1% and 0.7%, respectively.
Looking at the year-on-year change, the CPI increased by 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Food prices, which saw a flat rate in the previous month, rose by 2.8%, contributing approximately 0.51 percentage point to the year-on-year increase in the CPI. Non-food prices increased by 0.2%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage point to the year-on-year increase in the CPI. In the food category, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and pork increased by 21.8%, 4.1% and 16.1%, respectively, while the prices of eggs, edible oils, beef, mutton and tubers decreased within a range of 4% to 14.5%. In the non-food category, service prices rose by 0.5%, a decline of 0.1 percentage point. Specifically, medical service prices increased by 1.9%, education service prices increased by 1.7% and family service prices increased by 1.6%. At the same time, airplane ticket prices decreased by 11.9% and hotel accommodation prices decreased by 3.6%. In the non-food category, the prices of industrial consumer goods decreased by 0.4%, among which gasoline prices decreased by 2.7%, the prices of fuel-powered compact cars decreased by 6.4%, and the prices of daily household necessities, indoor decorations and traditional Chinese medicines increased within a range of 1.1% to 6.9%. These are the main reasons for the month-on-month and year-on-year changes of the CPI in August.
Looking ahead, with cooler temperatures and the end of China's major flood season, reduced rainfall will provide favorable conditions for vegetable cultivation, transportation and storage. Moreover, considering increased consumer demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, overall vegetable prices might experience a modest decrease. Given the reduced hog production and the impending traditional peak season for consumption, pork prices are likely to increase further. Overall, food prices are expected to remain stable. Regarding industrial consumer goods, energy prices are facing increasing downward pressure due to international factors. Meanwhile, the supply of other industrial consumer goods is ample, therefore, their prices are expected to remain stable. Service prices are expected to experience a slight increase due to the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Given all the factors mentioned above, the CPI is expected to gradually increase in the coming period.
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CNBC:
The data for July and August indicated a slowdown in the growth of value-added industrial output and fixed-asset investment. What are the differences between August and July? And what factors might have contributed to this? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your questions. Regarding the changes in industrial production and investment in July and August, I would say, industrial production in July and August was hindered by a combination of factors, including adverse weather conditions like heatwaves, torrential rain and floods. Meanwhile, some industries were also affected by weak market demand. Given all this, the year-on-year growth of value-added industrial output slowed in July and August. Both months experienced relatively fast month-on-month growth. Therefore, the cumulative growth remained stable. Notably, the transformation and upgrading of industries has been advancing, as mentioned previously, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing experiencing robust growth. Investment activities were also affected by extreme weather conditions, with some regions reporting a decline in construction due to persistent high temperatures and extreme weather. Nevertheless, investment continued to expand in scale and improve in structure. Fixed asset investment grew by 3.4% year on year between January and August, and maintained positive growth in August from the previous month. Structural data has revealed several significant features of the current investment situation:
First, investment in the manufacturing sector has been a major driving force for overall investment growth. Investment in the manufacturing industry experienced a 9.1% year-on-year growth in the first eight months, outpacing overall investment by 5.7 percentage points. It contributed 2.2 percentage points to the growth of total investment, making up more than 60% of the total investment growth. Notably, investment in the sectors of equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing and raw materials manufacturing all saw robust growth, expanding by 10%, 14.9% and 9% year on year, respectively.
Second, investment in high-tech industries has been active. In recent years, China has made concerted efforts to cultivate new quality productive forces, and steadily foster new growth drivers and new strengths. It has stepped up efforts to support sci-tech innovation, witnessing a rapid growth in the investment in high-tech industries. From January to August, investment in high-tech industries expanded by 10.2% year on year, outpacing overall investment growth by 6.8 percentage points. Notably, investment in the electronic and telecommunication equipment manufacturing sector, aerospace and equipment manufacturing sector, as well as information service sector, and services for commercialization of technology breakthroughs surged by 10%, 34.4%, 9.9% and 15.9% year on year, respectively. These all significantly outpaced overall investment growth.
Third, large-scale projects have been a key driver of investment growth. From January to August, investment completed in projects with planned total expenditures of 100 million yuan and above grew by 7% year on year, contributing 3.8 percentage points to overall investment growth. As such, they have played their role as a "cornerstone" in maintaining the momentum of investment growth.
Fourth, equipment upgrades have yielded significant results. Driven by the policies to promote large-scale equipment upgrades, investment in machinery and equipment has grown rapidly, significantly contributing to overall investment growth. From January to August, investments in purchasing new machines and equipment increased by 16.8% year on year, 13.4 percentage points higher than overall investment growth.
Despite a moderate decrease in the cumulative growth rate of investment, which is due to the impact of extreme weather, investment is currently increasing in terms of both volume and quality. Looking ahead, the issuance and utilization of ultra-long treasury bonds and special government bonds will accelerate, and the policies to promote a new round of large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in of consumer goods will play a bigger role. Moreover, increased efforts will be made to advance major national strategies and build up security capacity in key areas. As a result, financial support and support for project implementation are expected to be improved, thereby maintaining steady growth of investment. Meanwhile, China still has great potential for progress in cultivating new quality productive forces, transforming and upgrading industries, transitioning toward green and low-carbon economy, and shoring up weaknesses in improving people's livelihoods. These areas offer significant investment opportunities for both the government and enterprises. Investment in such areas will play a greater role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, improving supply and benefiting the people. Thank you.
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National Business Daily:
Given the August employment data, how would you assess the performance of China's job market at present? What policy measures or suggestions do you have to further promote high-quality employment? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Since the beginning of the year, all regions and departments have intensified efforts to implement the employment-first strategy, strengthening the policy of giving priority to employment, and improving the mechanism to ensure employment. As a result, the overall job market has remained stable. From January to August, the average of surveyed urban unemployment rate in China stood at 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that last year. The surveyed urban jobless rate was 5.3% in August, rising by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, primarily due to the impact of graduation season.
The surveyed unemployment rate for migrant workers decreased. In August, this rate was 4.9%, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for rural migrant workers was 4.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from July. This decline is primarily attributed to increased summer travel activities, which have boosted employment in related industries.
The urban surveyed unemployment rate in major cities saw a slight increase. In August, this rate in 31 major cities was 5.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The slight uptick in both the national urban surveyed unemployment rate and that of the 31 major cities is primarily due to the influx of recent college graduates entering the labor market during graduation season.
It's also important to recognize that, with a large labor force and ongoing economic restructuring, China faces both pressures on overall job creation and significant structural employment challenges. More efforts are needed to stabilize employment. In the next stage, we must continue to follow the plans outlined at the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, developing sound mechanisms for promoting high-quality, full employment and refining the related public services system. We must also improve employment support for key groups, such as college graduates, rural migrant workers and veterans, to maintain the current stable employment situation. Thank you.
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Cover News:
Since the start of this year, the State Council has released an action plan to initiate large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins. Relevant departments have also rolled out an array of supportive policies. What results have been achieved in implementing these policies? Have these results met your expectations? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed promoting large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins to pursue higher standards for technology, energy consumption and emissions. In March, the State Council released an action plan to make comprehensive arrangements in this regard. At the end of July, relevant departments issued measures to support these initiatives more. Many regions have also issued supportive policies. As the policy scope expands and intensifies, its effects continue to be felt.
First, regarding industrial production, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries grew rapidly, driven by policy incentives. In August, due to equipment upgrades and other factors, the added value increased across several sectors: ship and related equipment manufacturing rose by 23%, urban rail transit equipment by 17.1%, textile, garment and leather processing specialized equipment by 10.5%, and communication equipment by 10.3%. All these sectors achieved double-digit growth. Product-wise, food manufacturing machinery output rose by 66% year on year, textile specialized equipment 15.7%, and packaging specialized equipment 13.5%, all faster than the previous month. Stimulated by factors like trade-ins, consumer goods manufacturing added value grew 4.2% year on year, slightly faster than in July. Of the 13 consumer goods industries, 10 achieved year-on-year growth. In terms of specific products, those covered by relevant policies showed significant growth: household washing machine production increased by7%, smart TV production rose by6.7%, and household refrigerator production grew by 4.7%.
In terms of investment, driven by large-scale equipment upgrade policies, investment in equipment, tools and instruments grew rapidly, significantly boosting overall investment growth. From January to August, the contribution of investment in purchasing equipment, tools and instruments to overall investment growth reached 64.2%, up 3.5 percentage points from the January-July period.
In terms of consumption, driven by consumer goods trade-in policies, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment shifted from a 2.4% year-on-year decline in July to a 3.4% increase in August. High-efficiency appliances achieved double-digit growth in retail sales. New energy vehicle (NEV) sales grew even faster. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the August retail volume of NEVs increased by43.2% year on year, up 6.3 percentage points from July. The penetration rate of NEVs reached 53.9%, exceeding 50% for two consecutive months.
As policies for large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins are further implemented in detail, their scope and public awareness will expand, likely enhancing their effectiveness. These policies are expected to boost domestic demand and promote the development of new growth drivers. Thank you.
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Hongxing News:
How do you view the current trends in the real estate industry, and how effective have the various local real estate support measures been? The next phase includes the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period for the property market. What's your perspective on the trends for this upcoming phase? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Your question concerns the real estate sector. Some key indicators show a narrowing of declines due to a series of policies and measures. From January to August, real estate development investment fell by 10.2%, the same rate of decline as in the first seven months of the year. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage point. The sales value of commercial housing dropped by 23.6%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage point. The area of new housing construction decreased by 22.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage point.
These changes indicate the real estate market is still undergoing adjustments. Looking ahead, China's ongoing urbanization and the accelerating development of a new real estate model suggest the market still has a significant potential. We must continue implementing city-specific policies and accelerate policy implementation to gradually promote steady, healthy real estate market development and better meet people's housing needs. Thank you.
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ThePaper.cn:
How would you assess August's consumer spending data? Many local governments have issued ultra-long special treasury bonds this year to support consumer goods trade-in initiatives. What's your outlook for consumer spending in the coming period? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your questions. Since the third quarter, the central government has intensified efforts to support large-scale equipment upgrades and encourage consumer goods trade-ins. Local authorities have successively introduced implementation measures. As these policies gradually take effect, we are seeing a continued expansion in sales volume, maintaining an overall trajectory of recovery. From January to August, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year on year, essentially unchanged from the January to July period. The consumer market exhibited the following characteristics:
First, consumption of services maintained rapid growth, and the growth rate of catering revenue picked up. From January to August, retail sales of services grew by 6.9% year on year, 3.9 percentage points higher than the retail sales of goods during the same period. All categories of retail services achieved positive growth, with retail sales of transportation services, communication and information services, as well as financial and insurance services reaching or approaching double-digit growth. In particular, summer travel was active with robust demand for cultural tourism, reflecting the development potential of service consumption. Data from China State Railway Group shows that railways nationwide transported 887 million passengers in July and August, up 6.7% year on year, setting a new record for the summer travel period. Driven by increased travel and other factors, catering revenue rose 3.3% in August, a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month.
Second, new types of consumption remained relatively active. With the improvement of residents' living standards and changes in consumer attitudes, digital, green and health consumption have increasingly become new trends and hot spots, with some upgraded products showing positive growth. In August, the retail sales of communication equipment by enterprises above designated size increased by 14.8% year on year, 2.1 percentage points higher than in July. Sales of high energy-efficiency appliances and smart home appliances grew rapidly.
Third, online consumption grew rapidly, with some brick-and-mortar businesses and new models showing strong performance. New consumption models and business formats, such as livestream shopping, short video sales, and instant retail, have developed quickly, driving the continuous expansion of online consumption. From January to August, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.1% year on year, outpacing total retail sales of consumer goods by 4.7 percentage points, accounting for 25.6% of the total retail sales, the same as observed from January to July.
Fourth, policies aimed at stimulating consumption continued to show effectiveness. Currently, policies supporting consumer goods trade-ins are driving recovery of certain categories of bulk consumption. Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that as of Aug. 31, more than 800,000 applications for automobile scrapping and renewal subsidies were received. In August, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment by units above the designated threshold ceased to decline and started to grow, indicating that policies continued to take effect.
At the same time, we should recognize that the sustained recovery of consumption faces certain constraints, and residents' confidence and willingness to consume still need strengthening. The central government has repeatedly emphasized the importance of boosting domestic demand, with a particular focus on promoting consumption. Relevant policies are being intensified, and more localities are actively implementing consumer goods trade-in programs. Through a series of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, we are seeing continuous improvements in the quality and level of goods and services. Consumption policies are being refined, and new types of consumption and service consumption are growing faster. These factors are conducive to rapidly unleashing consumer demand potential, further consolidating the foundation for consumption recovery. Thank you.
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Yicai:
We have noted that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered 49.1% in August. How do you view this figure, and what is the expected trend in the coming period? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
In August, the manufacturing PMI fell slightly due to seasonal factors, while the non-manufacturing industry, particularly the service sector business activity index, accelerated mildly. The overall level of economic prosperity remained stable. Affected by high temperatures, heavy rainfall and off-season production in some industries, the manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. Meanwhile, driven by summer travel consumption, the services business activity index stood at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage point. The composite PMI output index posted 50.1%, continuing to stay within the expansion zone.
In the manufacturing sector, high-tech and equipment manufacturing returned to expansion, with PMI readings of 51.7% and 51.2%, respectively, up 2.3 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month. By industry, the production and new order indices for food, beverages and refined tea, railway, ship and aerospace equipment, and electrical machinery all exceeded 54%. Energy-intensive industries registered 46.4%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily causing the manufacturing PMI decline. Manufacturing enterprises' production expectations remained expansionary, with the business activity expectation index at 52% in August, indicating that most manufacturing enterprises were relatively optimistic about recent market developments. Structural changes in the manufacturing PMI show that the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector are accelerating, continually injecting new momentum into economic development.
Summer consumption played a significant role in driving growth in the service sector. The business activity indices for railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, and culture, sports and entertainment industries all remained above 55%, indicating a high level of prosperity. Regarding market expectations, the business activity expectation index for the service sector stood at 55.4%, maintaining a relatively high prosperity level. Among these, the business expectation indices for postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, and monetary and financial services all posted above 60%, reflecting a highly prosperous outlook. Overall, businesses remain optimistic about the development of these related industries.
Looking ahead, as various policies and measures continue to take effect and the "golden September and silver October" peak production season arrives, we anticipate a gradual recovery in both the overall PMI and the service sector's business activity index. Thank you.
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Securities Times:
The Statistics Law will strengthen the statistics-based oversight, ratchet up legal liabilities for illegal acts, and strive to solve prominent problems such as statistical fraud. What are the implications?
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your interest in the statistical work. On Sept. 13, the 11th session of the 14th NPC Standing Committee approved the Decision of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on Revising the Statistics Law of People's Republic of China, with the decision going into effect as of the date of promulgation. This marks the third revision of the Statistics Law since its promulgation in 1983, following revisions in 1996 and 2009. This latest revision represents another important milestone in advancing China’s statistical endeavors and legal framework.
In terms of this revision of the Statistics Law, we have followed the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implemented the guiding principles from the Party's 20th National Congress and the third plenary session of the 20th Party Central Committee, and thoroughly implemented guiding principles of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches and instructions on statistical work as well as the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee on the reform of statistics. We have maintained the institutional framework of the current Statistics Law and amended relevant systems focusing on strengthening the Party's leadership, giving full play to the role of statistics-based oversight, solving prominent problems such as statistical fraud, and improving the scientific and modern level of statistics. These mainly include the following four aspects:
First, the revision has adhered to the Party's leadership over statistical work. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has attached great importance to statistical work, taken into account the overall development of the Party and state, and made a series of major arrangements and requirements about statistical work. The revision of the Statistics Law this time has transformed major decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee into legal systems through proper legal procedures and has written "statistical work upholds the CPC leadership" into the Statistics Law, ensuring that statistical work always moves forward in the right direction under the Party's strong leadership.
Second, the revision has further strengthened statistics-based oversight. In order to demonstrate the emphasis of the Party Central Committee on strengthening statistics-based oversight, "strengthening statistics-based oversight" has been written in as the legislative purpose and the provisions on statistics-based oversight have been refined. The implementation of major national economic and social policies and measures by all regions and departments, as well as their performance of statutory statistical duties, have been included in the content of statistics-based oversight. The statutory connotation of statistics-based oversight and its functions has been further clarified, providing a legal basis for statistics-based oversight to play a more effective role within the Party and state oversight system.
Third, the revision has further strengthened measures to prevent and punish statistical fraud. First, it has added regulations and relevant legal liabilities, so that relevant persons in charge shall not explicitly state or imply that lower-level units and their personnel or the subjects of statistical surveys shall submit false statistical data. Second, the revision mandates that the system of accountability for preventing and controlling statistical fraud shall be established and improved. Local governments at all levels and all relevant departments have been required to include the prevention and punishment of statistical fraud and operations involving falsification in the scope of administration and performance of duties in accordance with the law and the assessment and management of the statistical work of leading officials shall be strengthened. Third, it stipulates that China shall implement a unified national economy measurement system and the NBS shall organize and implement the measurement of GPR in a unified manner. Fourth, the revision imposes legal liability on officials who neglect serious inaccuracies in statistical data, and includes catch-all provisions. These revisions have transformed the effective practices of the Party Central Committee's decisions and arrangements as well as practices into legal provisions, which can effectively strengthen leading officials' sense of responsibility and enable them to take proactive steps to prevent and control statistical fraud.
Fourth, the revision has improved the scientific and modern level of statistical work. To align with the requirements of the new development philosophy, it stipulates that in accordance with the new situation of economic and social development, scientific and rational statistical standards and the statistical indicator system shall be improved, and new forms of economy and new sectors shall be included in the statistical surveys. In order to give play to the driving role of information technology in the modernization of statistics, it stipulates that the state shall promote the in-depth integration of modern information technology and statistical work. In order to obtain more authentic and accurate source data, it stipulates that full use should be made of social big data, and the digitalization and standardization of statistical ledgers shall be advanced. These regulations have effectively enhanced the production capacity, data quality and service level of China's government statistics, providing a solid statistical guarantee for Chinese modernization.
To conclude, the amendments to the Statistics Law hold profound significance for refining statistical systems, strengthening statistics-based oversight, preventing and controlling statistical fraud, ensuring authenticity and credibility of statistical data, and better serving Chinese modernization. Thank you.
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Xing Huina:
One last question, please.
Economic Daily:
Based on the national economic performance over the past eight months this year, what are the predictions and prospects of the NBS for the future economic outlook? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
According to the economic performance over the past eight months, despite facing complex and volatile situations at home and abroad, China's economy has overall performed stably and high-quality development has continued to advance under the influence of factors such as the effective macro policies, accelerated development of new growth drivers, and the sustained growth of external demand. From January to August, the growth rates of industry, service industry, investment and consumption remained relatively stable, while the growth rate of exports has accelerated. The general principle of pursuing stable economic development has remained unchanged. Looking forward, these positive factors supporting steady and healthy economic development will continue to exist and new favorable conditions will also come into play. This year, the development trend of ensuring stability while making progress is expected to continue. Specifically, there are three supporting factors:
First, new growth drivers are rapidly emerging. China is at a crucial stage of transformation and upgrading. The leading and driving role of innovation has continued to be strengthened. The accelerated cultivation of new quality productive forces and strong potential and vitality of new forms of business and new models have gradually become new economic growth drivers. For instance, from January to August, the value added of high-tech manufacturing industry rose 8.9% year on year. The production of new energy vehicles and service robots grew by 31.3% and 25.4%, respectively. New forms and models of consumer spending such as instant retail have developed rapidly, driving the online retail sales of physical goods to maintain relatively fast growth. As emerging sectors continue to unlock their potential and foster new strengths, economic development prospects will be further extended and expanded.
Second, domestic demand is poised for sustained growth. Investment has been expanding steadily this year, with manufacturing investment growing significantly faster than the total investment. The investment in high-tech fields has demonstrated a sound momentum of growth. From January to August, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services industries increased by 9.6% and 11.7%, respectively. At the same time, driven by the policy for large-scale equipment renewal, investment in purchases of equipment and instruments contributed over 60% to the total investment growth, for the growth of investment, providing important support for investment growth. Since the beginning of the third quarter, the central government has provided stronger support for large-scale equipment renewal and has expedited the process for the issuance and use of special treasury bonds and local government special bonds. With the gradual allocation of these funds to specific projects and the formation of physical workload, as well as the weakening of the impact of high temperatures on project construction, the volume of investment will continue to expand. Consumption has continued to recover since the beginning of this year. Development- oriented and leisure-based consumption, such as services and upgraded products, have grown quickly. Holiday travel has played a significant role in driving consumption and cultural and tourism consumption has been active. Meanwhile, the effects of trading-in consumer goods have continued to manifest. Looking forward, with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, residents' consumption demand for travel is expected to be further stimulated, coupled with the further effectiveness of the trade-in policy of consumer goods, and the continuous implementation of policies to stabilize employment and promote income increases, consumption is poised to expand and upgrade.
Third, macro policies will continue to be strengthened. Since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have been fully implementing the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council and taken effective measures to implement macro policies, providing strong support for promoting stable economic growth. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has made systematic arrangements for the follow-up economic work and all regions and departments are currently working harder to advance and implement these. For example, many regions recently introduced policies for expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. These policies are expected to further optimize the consumption environment, create new consumption scenarios, and unleash the full potential of policies, thereby fostering synergy for advancing economic development, and promoting development of the real economy. At the same time, a series of reform measures outlined at the third plenary session of the 20th Party Central Committee are gradually being implemented, which is conducive to boosting confidence, building consensus and stimulating impetus for development.
In general, despite a complex and severe external environment and persistent challenges of inadequate domestic demand, China's economy has maintained overall stability. Factors of production underpinning high-quality development have continued to accumulate and increase, providing strong support for us to deal with all kinds of risks and challenges. Economic performance is expected to sustain the development trend of ensuring progress while maintaining stability. Thank you.
Xing Huina:
That concludes our press conference today. Thank you to Ms. Liu and all our media friends for your participation. Goodbye.
Translated and edited by Yan Bin, Wang Qian, Zhang Lulu, Zhang Junmian, Yang Chuanli, Wang Wei, Gong Yingchun, Yuan Fang, Li Xiao, Ma Yujia, Zhang Tingting, Liu Sitong, Xu Kailin, Li Huiru, Zhang Rui, David Ball, Rochelle Beiersdorfer, and Jay Birbeck. In case of any discrepancy between the English and Chinese texts, the Chinese version is deemed to prevail.
