Economic Daily:
We have noticed import growth slowed down slightly in the fourth quarter; so, what was the main reason for that? Besides, the annual central economic work conference pointed out that there are new and worrisome developments amid the generally steady economic operation. How do these new development features reflect foreign trade in general? And what is your expectation for general foreign trade in 2019? Thank you.
Li Kuiwen:
Thank you. Let me start by answering your first question about imports and exports in the fourth quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, imports and exports registered year-on-year growth of 8.8 percent. The growth rate was slower than that of the third quarter. I think that was due to the following reasons:
First, the volume of imports and exports increased quarter by quarter. [These] reached 6.76 trillion yuan, 7.36 trillion yuan, 8.18 trillion yuan and 8.21 trillion yuan during the four quarters of last year respectively, with figures exceeding 8 trillion yuan in both the third and fourth quarters, a high level.
Second, the growth rate of imports and exports still remains within its proper range. The main reason for the subdued growth rate in the fourth quarter are attributed to last year's large base figure. The base figure of the fourth quarter was five percent larger than that of the third quarter. However, compared to the third quarter, imports and exports increased by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter.
In regard to the situation you just mentioned, that the growth rate of imports and exports slightly slowed down in the fourth quarter, we consider such fluctuations as normal, and related to many factors including the domestic and international economic situation, commodity prices and the plans of foreign trade enterprises. In our opinion, such fluctuations will weaken over a longer period.
Regarding the second question you raised about hidden concerns in China's foreign trade, we believe that the biggest worry about the development of China's foreign trade in 2019 is that the external environment is complex and harsh, and there are many uncertainties. In some countries, protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, and world economic growth may slow down, affecting cross-border trade and investment. At present, major international organizations have already lowered their expectations for growth of the global economy and trade. For example, the World Bank recently lowered its forecast of global economic growth in 2019 from 3 percent to 2.9 percent, reflecting concerns about the current trends in international trade.
Your third question is about the general trends of China's imports and exports in 2019. In general, China will keep its economic development on a stable and healthy track. The central government has successively issued a series of policy measures to stabilize foreign investment. And the effect is showing, laying a solid foundation through policy for the advancement of foreign trade this year. At the same time, the external environment is still complicated and severe. There are still many uncertain and unstable factors, and objective factors such as last year's large base figure, all of which may slow the growth rate of foreign trade.
We believe that with further opening up and the further advancement of supply-side structural reforms, China's foreign trade development this year is expected to stabilize and improve in terms of both quality and efficiency. Thank you.
TASS:
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, as of December 2018, the trade volume between China and Russia has exceeded US$100 billion. What kind of expectations does the General Administration of Customs have on the economic and trade cooperation between the two sides in 2019?
Li Kuiwen:
Thank you for the question. In 2018, against the background of frequent high-level visits and all-round cooperation between China and Russia, the two countries' economic and trade relationship continued to increase, and Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation has maintained a good momentum of development. According to customs statistics, China's imports and exports to Russia in 2018 were 707.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24 percent, accounting for 2.3 percent of China's total import and export value during the same period. Among them, exports to Russia reached 316.65 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1 percent, and imports from Russia reached 390.9 billion yuan, an increase of 39.4 percent. If denominated in U.S. dollars, the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia reached US$107.06 billion in 2018, surpassing US$100 billion for the first time, a record high, with an increase of 27 percent. The growth rate ranked first among China's top ten trading partners. In terms of main import and export commodities, exports to Russia were mainly mechanical and electrical products, while imports from Russia were mainly energy resource products such as crude oil, coal and sawn timber.
This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. Both countries will work together to further strengthen strategic cooperation, promote cooperation in all fields, and promote China-Russia's comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination to achieve more fruitful results and better benefit the two peoples. It is expected that there will be new developments in Sino-Russian economic and trade relations this year. Thank you.
Reuters:
I'd like to ask how the import and export figures with the U.S. in 2018 compared with 2017? And what's your projection for the year to come? Thank you.
Li Kuiwen:
Thanks for your questions. Now I'd like to inform you of some figures regarding the Sino-U.S. trade due to the wide concerns in this regard. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that, in 2018, the volume of our trade with the U.S. was 4.18 trillion yuan, 5.7 percent up year-on-year. Our exports to the U.S. hit 3.16 trillion yuan, a gain of 8.6 percent. Our imports from the U.S. fell 2.3 percent to 1.02 trillion yuan. This means our trade surplus in 2018 was 2.14 trillion yuan, up 14.7 percent year-on-year. Priced in dollars, the total value of the imports and exports between China and the U.S. reached US$633.52 billion, 8.5 percent up year-on-year. The total value of bilateral exports hit US$478.42 billion, 11.3 percent up year-on-year, and the total value of bilateral imports was US$155.1 billion, a 0.7 percent gain. We see China's trade surplus with the U.S. rising to US$323.32 billion, 17.2 percent up year-on-year. China's 2018 trade surplus with the U.S. somewhat widened compared with 2017, which we think demonstrates the complementarities between the two economies in different stages of development.
