China.org.cn | December 6, 2024
Shou Xiaoli:
The floor is now open to questions. Please identify the media outlet you represent before asking your questions. Please raise your hand when asking your questions.
The Paper.cn:
China's economic performance has been generally stable since the beginning of this year, but, due to the complex and changing domestic and international environment, there have also been difficulties and challenges. How do you evaluate October's economic performance? What are the highlights and positive changes? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your questions. Everyone is paying close attention to economic performance in October. Since the beginning of this year, the international situation has been complex and severe. Global economic recovery has eased up and the monetary policies of major economies have in turn entered the cycle of interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the intertwining of trade protectionism, unilateralism and geopolitical conflicts has increased the uncertainty with the operation of the world economy. Domestically, the Chinese economy is in a critical period of structural adjustment and transformation. The transition between traditional and emerging growth drivers has been accelerated, and more difficulties and challenges that development faces have emerged. In response to these difficulties and challenges, the CPC Central Committee has made scientific decisions and has strengthened macroeconomic regulation and control. Especially after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on Sept. 26, relevant departments have intensified efforts to introduce a package of incremental policies, resulting in an enhanced rebound with economic performance and key indicators as well as improving market confidence. Main indicators in October showed a trend of "three rebounds, two stables and one boost."
"Three rebounds" refer to notable rebounds in market sales, within the service sector and with imports and exports. In terms of market sales, driven by the trade-in policy for consumer goods, total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 4.8% year on year, up 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. Specifically, retail sales of goods increased by 5% year on year, up 1.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The retail sales of services continues to show strong momentum, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase for the first ten months, outpacing the growth of retail sales of goods. In terms of the service sector, it has demonstrated a noticeable recovery trend. In October, the index of services production grew by 6.3% year on year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and marking two consecutive months of increased growth. This represents the highest growth rate for the index so far this year. Driven by incremental policies, significant recoveries were observed in the indexes of production of the financial sector, real estate industry and the wholesale and retail sectors, with those of the wholesale and retail sectors improving by 2 percentage points, and those of the financial and real estate sectors increasing by more than 3 percentage points and 3 percentage points, respectively. From an import and export perspective, despite a slowdown in global trade growth, China's goods trade competitiveness continues to emerge. In October, the total volume of import and export goods increased by 4.6% year on year, accelerating by 3.9 percentage points from the previous month. Exports grew by 11.2%, accelerating by 9.6 percentage points.
"Two stables" refer to the stable growth of industry and investment as well as the stability of employment and pricing. Industry and investment are crucial to support economic development. In October, both industry and investment maintained stable growth, playing an important role in the steady progress of economic performance. In terms of industry, driven by factors such as large-scale equipment renewal and industrial upgrading, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year on year in October, maintaining rapid growth. Among them, the upgrading trend of manufacturing was obvious. Notably, high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.4% year on year, significantly outpacing the overall growth of industrial enterprises above designated size. In terms of investment, investment in key sectors has shown good growth momentum and has played a strong supporting role. From January to October, fixed asset investment increased by 3.4% year on year, maintaining a growth rate of 3.4% for three consecutive months, which indicates increased stability in investment growth. Investment in manufacturing grew by 9.3%, increasing slightly by 0.1 percentage point compared to the first nine months. Particularly, investment in high-tech manufacturing has grown rapidly, which will effectively promote industrial upgrading.
Employment and price stability have an important impact on the stable functioning of the economy. Regarding employment, the surveyed urban unemployment rate in October was 5%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate of the population with non-local agricultural household registration was 4.7%, significantly lower than the surveyed urban unemployment rate. In terms of consumer prices, influenced by a decrease in certain food and energy prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October rose by 0.3% year on year, with a slight decrease from the previous month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% year on year, expanding by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing positive changes.
"One boost" refers to the boost in market confidence. With the accelerated implementation of existing policies and the strong introduction of a package of incremental policies, October not only saw a noticeable recovery in major production and demand indicators but also a boost in market confidence. This was reflected in active stock and real estate market transactions as well as with the expectations of enterprises and consumers improving. The real estate market saw an increase in new housing sales and a significant improvement in second-hand housing transactions, with enhanced market activities. From January to October, the fall in sales of new commercial housing by sales area and sales value narrowed by 1.3 and 1.8 percentage points, compared with the first nine months. The substantial improvement in October was the first of the year. In terms of the capital market, it also saw a significant trend in recovery. In October, the stock trading volume and turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by about 1.5 times year on year, making it the largest growth rate rebound this year. In terms of business entities' expectations, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector was 50.1% in October, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. This is the first time that manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion range since May of this year. In terms of consumer expectations, the consumer confidence index rebounded by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first increase after six consecutive months of decline. These changes will greatly stimulate market vitality and drive economic upturn.
On the whole, under the influence of various policy measures taking effect, the national economy in October continued to make progress while ensuring steady performance, with significant rebounds in major economic indicators and boosts market confidence. However, it is also important to recognize that the international environment is still complex and severe while domestic demand remains weak, and some enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In the next step, we must implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party's Central Committee, intensify macroeconomic regulation, effectively utilize effects of various policies, expand domestic demand, strengthen innovation-driven development, consolidate and enhance the positive momentum of economic recovery, and promote high-quality economic development.
Thank you.