Responding to Adrian Zenz's lies on Xinjiang's birth control:

A survey on fertility willingness of ethnic minority women in Xinjiang

By Lin Fangfei, Ph.D, School of Politics and Public Administration, Xinjiang University

xju.edu.cn | September 14, 2020

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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo published a press statement titled "On China's Coercive Family Planning and Forced Sterilization Program in Xinjiang" on 29 June 2020. On the same day, the Associated Press released an investigation report titled "China forces birth control on Uighurs to suppress population" (See this report at https://apnews.com/e2674c069d46f6d5c9a3d3be40d612d4, accessed on September 1, 2020.). Both Pompeo' statement and the Associated Press's report claimed that aiming to curb the Muslim population in Xinjiang, Chinese government has taken a series of draconian measures to slash birth rates among Uighurs and other minorities.

One research report, written by Adrian Zenz and titled by "Sterilizations, IUDs, and mandatory birth control: The CCP's campaign to suppress Uyghur birth rates in Xinjiang" (hereinafter, referred to as Zenz's report), was published by Jamestown Foundation in June 2020. Zenz's report is the main citing source of Pompeo's statement and the Associated Press's investigation report. Zenz's report claimed that its data was quoted from China's official documents and statistical yearbook, yet in fact, this report has a large number of problems, mainly including fabricating facts and falsifying data. The wording that Chinese government has adopted compulsory sterilization to Uyghur women in Xinjiang, in the essence, is a baseless fake news which was concocted by US government and some western foundations and scholars with anti-communist background.

Adrian Zenz,the author of the report, is a Germany scholar hired by The Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation — an extreme right-wing organization sponsored by the US government. Since its establishment in 1983, this foundation, disregarding the objective facts, has repeatedly conferred so-called "human rights awards" to some criminal terrorists, and slandered and denied China's salient contribution in fighting against COVID-19. In his report, Zenz listed his so-called significant research findings of Chinese government suppressing Uyghur birth ratesby mandatory measures, and declared that "[f]or the first time, the veracity and scale of these anecdotal accounts (These anecdotal accounts here refer to "mandatory birth control in Xinjiang".) can be confirmed through a systematic analysis of government documents" (Zenz's report, p2.). In the following sections, using objective facts and statistical data, we will refute Zenz's "significant" research findings and eventually expose how he concocted these lies through fabricating facts and falsifying data.

Lie 1: The natural population growth rate in Xinjiang has a sharp decrease.

To denigrated maliciously denigrated China's population policy based on ethnic equality as a "genocide" policy, Zenz asserted that since 2015, the natural population growth rate in Xinjiang has dropped sharply, and in 2018 the natural population growth rate of Hotan and Kashgar was merely 2.58‰ (See Zenz's report, p2, p8.).

Yet, the data Zenz cited in the report is seriously inconsistent with real official statistical data. According to Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2019 , the natural population growth rates of the four prefectures in south Xinjiang in 2018 are as follows: Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture was 11.45‰, Aksu Prefecture was 5.67‰, Kashgar Prefecture was 6.93‰, Hotan Prefecture was 2.96‰ (See Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2019, " Table 3-6: Natural Changes of Population by Prefecture, City, County", p82-83.). In addition, Zenz did not indicate the accurate source of relevant data when he referring to the natural population growth rates in Hotan and Kashgar. Thus, the data probably is untrustworthy, and its authenticity is problematic as well.

Xinjiang's natural population growth rate has indeed declined since 2015, however,its decline is by no means as "sharp" as described in Zenz's report. Xinjiang's natural population growth rate in 2018 is 6.13‰, which was higher than the national natural population growth rate of 3.81‰(See Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2019 , "Table 2-8 the urban-rural composition, birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate of population by regions (2018)", http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2019/indexch.htm, accessed on September 2, 2020.). In final section, by presenting the objective data and some specific cases, I will argue that the changes occurring in the natural growth rate of Xinjiang's population is a reasonable phenomenon, rather than consequence of so-called mandatory intervention by Chinese government, elaborate the reasons of decreasing growth rate in Xinjiang —it is mainly caused by decreasing fertility willingness of ethnic minority women, and amply reflects China's efforts and achievements in promoting the protection of women's and children's rights over a long period of time.

Pompeoand Zenz's claim is a groundless statement that the decreasing natural population growth rate in Xinjiang is mainly caused by mandatory birth control policies implemented by Chinese government upon ethnic minority residents. "Regulations on Population and Family Planning of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region",the local regulation related to Xinjiang's family planning policy that was newly revised in July 2017, clearly stated that Xinjiang implements the birth policy that one urban couple is admitted to have two children, and one rural couple is admitted to have three children(See https://www.sohu.com/a/352896992_363955, accessed on September 2, 2020.). There is no conflict between this newly revised regulation and the previous regulation in referring to the family planning policy of ethnic minorities —after new regulation being issued,the urban ethnic minority couples still have the right of having two children, and the rural couples also have kept the right of having three children.The protection of reproductive rights of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang is exactly the concrete manifestation of Chinese government's insistence in protecting the legal rights of all the ethnic groups without any discrimination. Western countries' defamation of Xinjiang's family planning policies is completely nonsense and only reflects their extremely sinister intentions.

Lie 2: Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture has set an unprecedented near-zero population growth target for 2020 — a mere 1.05 per mille.

Citing the data from one official document titled "Departmental Budget of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture Health Commission 2020", Zenz claimed that Kizilsu government has "set an unprecedented near-zero population growth target" (Zenz's report, p.2, p9, p25.), that is Kizilsu's natural population growth rate plans to be reduced to 1.05‰ in 2020(Ibid, p9.). Zenz thus used this new "evidence"to continue confirming his absurd conclusion that Chinese government has adopted compulsory birth control against Uighurs and other minorities.

Actually, Zenz's report completely falsified the figures in the official documents of Kizilsu government. In this document from Kizilsu's Health Commission (I directly downloaded this official document from the website link provided by Zenz's report.), it clearly indicates that the goal of natural population growth rate in 2020is 1.05% (see Figure 1), that is 10.5‰, if conversed into the unit of pre mille. This number is not much different from Kizilsu's natural population growth rate of 11.45% (See Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2019, "Table 3-6: Natural Changes of Population by Prefecture, City, County", p83.). However, Zenz, through deliberately tampering with the unit of the ratio and fabricating false figures, attacked and discredited the family planning policies implemented by Chinese government with sinister purposes.

Figure 1: Screen-shot of "Departmental Budget of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture Health Commission 2020"


Lie 3: Those ethnic minority women who violated Xinjiang's family planning policies would be imprisoned to the vocational education and training center.

This is the third lie made by Zenz in his report. He claimed that Xinjiang's government documents stipulate that those ethnic minority women who violate family planning policies would be sent to the vocational education and training center. He regarded these official documents as a piece of "strong" evidence to prove the authenticity of "Karakax List". "Karakax List" pointed out that the violations of family planning policies were the most common reason for internment.

Ironically, after looking through these official documents Zenz listed and quoted in the report, I has not found any evidences to prove Zenz's statement.On the contrary, all the documents emphasized that the family planning work must be carried out in compliance with national laws and local regulations.

In the white paper of Vocational Education and Training in Xinjiang published by the State Council Information Office, it is clearly stated that, Xinjiang's vocational education and training work aims to "prevent the breeding and spread of terrorism and religious extremism, effectively curbing the frequent terrorist incidents and protecting the rights to life, health, and development of the people of all ethnic groups"(See this white paper: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2019-08/16/content_5421633.htm, accessed on September 2, 2020.). The Population and Family Planning Law of the People's Republic of China also has clearly stipulated about the penalties for the acts violating the law, that is,the illegal child-bearers will pay social compensation fee. The official website of Xinjiang's government has a detailed policy interpretation on family planning policy in Xinjiang. It interprets that, in the case that residents who are temporarily unable to pay social compensation fee due to families' economic difficulties, the payment can be deferred or paid in installments. It fully demonstrates that the Chinese government not only obeys the principle of ruling the country by law, but also has the characteristics of humanity during the specific implementation process. Zenz's report, however,deliberately fabricated the non-existent connection between the establishment of vocational education and training center and the illegal activities violating the law of family planning, in an attempt to stigmatize and attack China's family planning policies and to negate the achievements of vocational education and training work in anti-terrorism.

What is "Karakax List", a so-called leak official document mentioned in Zenz's report? In February 2020, some Western media released a document without any official stamps, claiming that this document called "Karakax List" recorded the specific reasons in details why more than 300 Uyghur residents were detained in vocational education and training center in Karakax county. According to this document, the illegal childbirth was the primary reason for Uyghur residents' being detained. China Daily did a careful investigation and verification about "Karakax List" in this February. This report found that the vast majority of the 311 Uyghur residents listed on the "Karakax List" have been working and living normally in society the whole time, and only very few people, who were affected by religious extremism and committed minor offenses, received vocational education and training (China Daily, "Officials: Xinjiang 'name list' terrorist hoax", February 24, 2020. See https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/24/WS5e5307e9a3101282172799f1.html, accessed on September 3, 2020.). The "Karakax List", as one editorial from Global Times pointed out, was totally fabricated, and its concurrence reflected the customary tactic used by Western countries to discredit China's Xinjiang policy (Global Times, "When will Western media show around Xinjiang end?", February 28, 2020. See: https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnKpsia, accessed on September 3, 2020.).

Lie 4: In 2018, at least 80 percent of the new surgeries of IUD placements in China were preformed in Xinjiang.

Figure 2: Screen-shot of China Health Statistical Yearbook 2019


Zenz continued making up some sensational conclusions in his report - In 2018, at least 80 percent of the new surgeries of IUD placements in China were preformed in Xinjiang (Zenz's report, p3.). In fact, according to China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019 officially published by the National Health Commission, the number of new surgeries of IUD placement in Xinjiang in 2018 was 328,475, and the number of new surgeries nationwide was 3,774,318 (See Figure 2). It is easily estimated that the number of Xinjiang's new surgeries of IUD placements accounted for only 8.7% of the national number.Obviously, the percentage Zenz concluded is far from the real data.

Another evidence also confirms that Zenz's data was totally fabricated. The number of new surgeries of IUD placements in Xinjiang did not show obvious fluctuations from 2015 to 2018,and actually,the number of new surgeries of Xinjiang in 2018decreased, compared with 2015(See the table "Family planning operations in various regions" Selected from China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2016 and China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019. ). Ironically, Zenz claimed that his data sources were all from official statistics,yet he was unable to use the official data to calculate a right answer that ought to be obtained by a very simple division.

Lie 5: The Chinese government has performed compulsory birth control operations on Uyghur women who only have one child , and the s hares of women aged 18 to 49 who were either widowed or in menopause have more than doubled since the onset of the internment campaign in Kuqa County.

In his report, Zenz presented one form that recording the situation of IUD checking for women by quarter in one District, Payzawat County (see Figure 3),and criticized that the local health and family planning department conducted excessively frequent inspections on ethnic minority women(Zenz's report,p12, 13.). Then, he took this "evidence"to prove his findings that the Chinese government even took compulsory birth control measures on Uyghur women with only one child.

Chin's fertility technical services have insisted the principle of combining state guidance and individual voluntary, and emphasized that all the Chinese citizens have the right to be informed of freely choosing contraceptive methods.The decisions of operating birth control surgeries that Uyghur and other ethnic minority residents made is fully based on their willingness and full knowledge about the surgeries. In other words,one woman has the right to decide to have herself sterilized after having one child.The sources of the form Zenz provided were unknown and unidentified, and this form did not contain any evidence to prove that women's choice to operate IUD placement after having a child is a government-compulsory behavior, not a voluntary behavior. Zenz's conclusion is not the fact but the product of his extrapolation.

Figure 3: Quarterly IUD check list for Kumarik District, Payzawat County, directly cited from Zenz's report, p. 13.


It should be mentioned here that the World Health Organization (WHO) has clearly verified the safety of IUDs. In the website of WHO, IUDs are identified as"a safe and effective method of long-term reversible contraception and the most widely used reversible method of contraception in the world today, used by an estimated 100 million women" (See the official website of WHO, https://extranet.who.int/rhl/topics/fertility-regulation/contraception/copper-containing-framed-intrauterine-devices-contraception, accessed on September 3, 2020.). Some relevant medical studies also confirms that it is necessary that women who use the IUDs go to the hospital for regular checkups to ensure its placement is correct(See: http://www.thepaper.cn/baidu.jsp?contid=1534503, accessed on September 3, 2020.). Free regular gynecological examinations provided by Chinese government have effectively reduced or prevented women's risk of gynecological diseases. The detection rate of women's gynecological diseases in Xinjiang has dropped from 41.6% in 2010 to 29.9% in 2018(Date source: the table of "the detection of gynecological diseases" in China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2010 and China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019 . ). It definitely is a great achievement promoted by Chinese government in the protection of women's rights and interests which cannot be discredited.

It is even more absurd that another lie made by Zenz without any evidence. Zenz claimed that the shares of women aged 18 to 49 who were either widowed or in menopause have more than doubled since the onset of the internment campaign in Kuqa County, because those women's husbands died of internment or those women who were detained in the vocational education and training centers had been forced to be injected Depo-Provera, a well-known long-acting reversible hormonal contraceptive injection. Zenz thus censured Chinese government as the culprit who caused those women's menopause or losing fertility abilities (Zenz's report, p3, p9.).

Scholars and media reporters from many counties have visited the vocational education and training centers in Xinjiang since the centers' establishment. They have fully appreciated that the centers have fully respected students' religious beliefs, spiritual and cultural life. Yet, the so-called evidences Zenz offering to support his absurd lie were merely his previous article and one table that was quoted from the sixth national population census. This table merely existed in one footnote from Zenz's report yet cannot be found in the sixth national census's report.

Lie 6: The natural growth rate of the Han population in one residential district in Hotan was nearly 8 times higher than that of the Uyghur population in 2018.

Zenz stated that the natural growth rate of the Han population in Gulbagh Residential District in Hotan was nearly 8 times higher than that of the Uyghur population in 2018, and claimed that "Beijing is doubling down on a policy of Han settler colonialism" (Zenz's report,p3, p9.).

The facts again are distorted. First, Zenz did not indicate the source of the data about the natural population growth rate of Gulbagh Residential District, and thus the authenticity of the data source cannot be verified. Second, a variety of factors may cause the significant change of the natural population growth rate of one district. For instances, the birth rate may significantly increase in one district during a short period, if a large number of young people or new couples flood into this district due to some reasons, such as urban renewal or relocation. Third, Zenz's conclusion was invalid as it severely violated the basic principle of statistics — even if the data is true, the change concurring in one district especially in a very short period would be inadequate to reflect the overall change in one county or city. Actually,if we comparing the demographic changes of Han population with that of Uighur population in Hotan from 2017 to 2018, it shows that the number of total Uyghur population in Hotan increased, while that of total Han population decreased(Data source: Table 3-7 "population by region, state, city, county and by ethnic group" in Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2018 and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2019 .). In the essence, Zenz's conclusion about Han settler colonialism"was totally a lie made by playing the numbers game.

The truth: Reasonable population growth rate and China's achievements in protecting women's rights

No dark cloud can forever prevent the sun from shining, and truth is the best lie crusher. The natural population growth rate in Xinjiang since 2010 has indeed shown a declining trend, yet this phenomenon is definitely not caused by the groundless allegation trumped up by some western governments and scholars that Chinese government has implemented mandatory birth control on Uyghur residents. On the contrary, this demographic change reflects China's long-term efforts and important achievements in promoting policies to protect the rights and interests of women and children in ethnic minority areas.

Many sociological and demographic researches have pointed out that the variation in population fertility rate is closely related to many factors including the changes of social policies, the level of social and economic development, women's fertility willingness, and population migration. In addition, some studies also have emphasized that women's fertility willingness plays in a crucial role in affecting the change of fertility rate (Guo Zhigang. 2008. "China's low fertility and its determinants", Population Research , 32(4),1-12.). Li and Chang, by analyzing the data collected by the sixth national census in 2010, found some factors affecting the high fertility rate of Uighurs, including relatively backward social and economic development in local community, women's early marriages, low education, and women's reproductive autonomy restricted by religious beliefs (Li Jianxin, and Chang qingling. 2016. "Analysis of Marriage and Fertility Status of Xinjiang Uygur-concentrated areas",Northwest Journal of Ethnology , 88: 118-128.).

Looking back to the past ten years, we figure out that the fertility rates of Uighurs and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang has decreased. On the one hand, ethnic minority residents in Xinjiang have continued enjoying equal and even more preferential policies of population and family planning. On the other hand, Xinjiang, especially south Xinjiang, has been experiencing a rapid social and economic development, during which Chinese government has taken a series of policies and measures to promote gender equality and to protect women's rights and interests. More and more ethnic minority women have fully enjoyed the right to education and employment and also obtained more autonomy in deciding the fertility issues.

It is a close correlation between the decline in fertility rate and gender equality in education (Ye Hua, and Wu Xiaogang. 2011. "Fertility Decline and the Trend in Educational Gender Inequality in China", Sociological Studies, 2011(5): 153-177.). In past ten years, Uyghur women in Xinjiang have fully enjoyed their rights to be educated. In 2018, the enrollment rate of school-age children in all primary schools in Xinjiang has reached 99.91%, a very high ratio (See: http://www.xinhuanet.com/2019-01/15/c_1123993237.htm, accessed on September 4, 2020.). Increasing young Uyghur women have gotten the university degree or above. From 1998 to 2018, the number of women in Xinjiang receiving higher education and its proportion of the total population has increased significantly. According to China Statistical Yearbook, the proportion of the female population aged 6 and over in Xinjiang with a university degree or above has raised from 5.07% in 1998 to 17.63% in 2018 (Data source: Table of "population aged 6 and over by sex and education level by region" from China Statistical Yearbook 1999 and China Statistical Yearbook 2019 .).

As the level of women's education increases, young Uyghur women have voluntarily postponed their ages of first marriage and childbearing. Munila, a 25-year-old Uyghur girl from Kashgar, is currently studying in Urumqi for pursing her postgraduate degree(Interviewing conducted in July 24, 2020。). She has a stable relationship with her boyfriend, yet Munila temporarily has no plan to immediately get married because in her opinion, finding a stable job after graduation school graduates is the priority for her now. In her careful arrangements about the future, the marriage will be considered after she working for one or two years. As for the issue of childbearing, she prefers having one child, and accepts two children on the premise that she and her future husband have the capacity of providing the good living conditions for their children. Compared with her parents, the first marriage age of Munila and her peers has been postponed, however, as Munila told to me, she has not felt any anxiety or pressure on her late marriage from his family.

Aynur, who had grew up in a rural village, now is a 32-year-old young mother from Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture(Interviewing conducted in July 25, 2020。). She has two sisters and one brother, and she and her two sisters have obtained the bachelor's degrees and gotten stable jobs now. Aynur returned to Kizilsu after graduating from graduate school in Xinjiang University, has become a high school teacher. She has been married for three years, having one child and being pregnant with her second baby. Aynur and her husband plan to have two children, as this couple hope that two children would accompany with each other in the future. Aynur now can conveniently receive the regular pregnancy checkups during her pregnancy. She also had enjoyed legal maternity leave and received maternity allowance during she having her first child.

The stories of Munila and Aynur vividly reflect the attitude differences between the Uyghur youth and the generation of their parents towards marriage and childbearing, The young girls concern more about their individual development and occupy more autonomy in choosing their marriage and deciding their future.

Additionally, rural women having more employment chances is one of key reasons that Uyghur rural women has changed their fertility willingness. In recent years,some provinces in central and eastern China have actively assisted Xinjiang to promote its economic development. In Kashgar, the Industrial Park established by Shenzhen city has provided a large number of jobs for local rural women. Many Uyghur and other ethnic minority women who had only stay at home and taken care of housework, have had the chances to go out of villages and work in the factories(See this news: http://kashi.gov.cn/Item/37385.aspx, accessed on September 4, 2020.). Their family income has increased, and their abilities has been improved. The living radius of Uighur rural women has no longer been confined to their families, and women's self-confidence has also increased.Uyghur rural women through working and studying in factories, they have gradually had a comprehensive understanding of family planing policy, and begun to concern more about the quality of their children's education, instead of merely pursuing the quantity of bearing children.

The cases and stories above fully demonstrate that the change of Xinjiang's ethnic minority women's fertility willingness is not the result of policy compulsion by government, but is derived from their own changing will and attitude on fertility. This change is the significant achievement of China's gender and ethnic equality, achieved by the long-term measures of protecting women's rights and interests and the policies of minority preferential treatment that Chinese government has unremittingly promoted, and also closely related to the prosperous and stable social atmosphere in Xinjiang. China, as a responsible major country,strictly complies and abides by Universal Declaration of Human Rights and The Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination Against Women and other international conventions adopted by the United Nations.

Some western countries and research institutions, based on their ideological prejudice and deliberate purposes, have concocted various absurd lies and maliciously slandered Chinese government by despicable means of fabricating facts and tampering data. However, we firmly believe that once the truth comes closer, the lie will run away. The ethnic equality policies implemented by Chinese government definitely will lead people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang towards a more prosperous and stable future.