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Read in Chinese
Speaker:
Ning Jizhe, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics
Chairperson:
Chen Wenjun, director general of the Press Bureau of the State Council Information Office (SCIO) and spokesperson of the SCIO
Date:
Jan. 17, 2022
Chen Wenjun:
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). Today, we have invited Mr. Ning Jizhe, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), to introduce China's economic performance in 2021, and answer your questions. Now, I would like to give the floor to Mr. Ning.
Ning Jizhe:
Friends from the media, good morning. In 2021, faced with multiple challenges including a grave and complex international environment and sporadic outbreaks of the pandemic at home, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments fully implemented the policy decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, coordinated epidemic prevention and control work with socio-economic development, took solid steps to ensure stability on the six fronts (employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and market expectations) and security in the six areas (employment, people's livelihood, market entities, food and energy, stability of industrial and supply chains, and grassroots operations), strengthened the macro polices for cross-cyclical adjustment, and increased the support to the real economy. As a result, national economic recovery and development were sustained, reform and opening-up and innovation were further advanced, people's livelihoods were strongly and effectively safeguarded, new strides were made in building a new development pattern, and new achievements were secured in high-quality development, thus kicking off a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan.
According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 114.37 trillion yuan in 2021, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year at constant prices with average two-year growth of 5.1%. By quarter, the GDP for the first quarter went up by 18.3% year on year, up by 7.9% for the second quarter, 4.9% for the third quarter and 4% for the fourth quarter. By industries, the value added of the primary industry was 8.31 trillion yuan, up by 7.1% over the previous year, that of the secondary industry was 45.1 trillion yuan, up by 8.2% and that of the tertiary industry was 60.97 trillion yuan, up by 8.2%.
First, grain output reached a new high and production of animal husbandry grew steadily.
The total output of grain in 2021 was 682.85 million metric tons, an increase of 13.36 million metric tons, or up by 2% over the previous year. Of this total, the output of summer grain was 145.96 million metric tons, up by 2.2%, and that of early rice was 28.02 million metric tons, up by 2.7%. The output of autumn grain reached 508.88 million metric tons, up by 1.9%. By crop variety, the output of rice was 212.84 million metric tons, up by 0.5%; wheat, 136.95 million metric tons, up by 2%; corn, 272.55 million metric tons, up by 4.6%; and soybean, 16.4 million metric tons, down by 16.4%. The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry in 2021 was 88.87 million metric tons, up by 16.3% over the previous year. Of this total, the output of pork was 52.96 million metric tons, up by 28.8%; beef, 6.98 million metric tons, up by 3.7%; mutton, 5.14 million metric tons, up by 4.4%; poultry, 23.8 million metric tons, up by 0.8%; milk, 36.83 million metric tons, up by 7.1%; and eggs, 34.09 million metric tons, down by 1.7%. At the end of 2021, pigs and breeding sows registered in stock were up by 10.5% and 4%, respectively, compared with the end of 2020.
Second, industrial production experienced sustained development and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing enjoyed fast growth.
The total value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% over the previous year, with average two-year growth of 6.1%. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining was up by 5.3%, that of manufacturing was up by 9.8% and that of production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water was up by 11.4%. The value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing went up by 18.2% and 12.9%, respectively, or 8.6 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points faster than that of industrial enterprises above designated size. By products, the production of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, integrated circuits, and micro computer equipment grew by 145.6%, 44.9%, 33.3% and 22.3%, respectively. In terms of ownership, the value added of state holding enterprises grew by 8%, that of share-holding enterprises was up by 9.8%, that of enterprises funded by foreign investors and investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 8.9% and that of private enterprises was up by 10.2%. In December, the total value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.3% year on year with an increase of 0.42% month on month. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 50.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. In 2021, the national industrial capacity utilization rate reached 77.5%, 3 percentage points higher than that of the previous year.
In the first eleven months of last year, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size were 7.98 trillion yuan, up by 38% year on year with an average two-year growth of 18.9%. The profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.98%, up by 0.9 percentage points year on year.
Third, the service sector witnessed sustained recovery with modern service industries demonstrating sound growth momentum.
The tertiary industry experienced fast growth in 2021. In terms of industries, the value added of the information transmission, software and information technology services, accommodation and catering services, and transportation, storage and postal services grew by 17.2%, 14.5% and 12.1% over the previous year respectively, maintaining the restorative growth. In 2021, the Index of Services Production grew by 13.1% compared with that of the previous year with an average two-year growth of 6%. In December, the Index of Services Production grew by 3% year on year. In the first eleven months of last year, business revenue of service enterprises above designated size grew by 20.7% year on year with average two-year growth of 10.8%. In December, the Business Activity Index for services was 52%, 0.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for sectors like telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and capital market services stayed within the high expansion range of 60% and above.
Fourth, market sales expanded with sales of basic living goods and upgraded consumer goods growing fast.
In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 44.08 trillion yuan, up by 12.5% over the previous year with an average two-year growth of 3.9%. Analyzed by different areas, retail sales in urban areas reached 38.16 trillion yuan, up by 12.5%; and retail sales in rural areas stood at 5.93 trillion yuan, up by 12.1%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 39.39 trillion yuan, up by 11.8%; and the income from catering was 4.69 trillion yuan, up by 18.6%. The basic living consumption sustained good momentum of growth, with the retail sales of beverages and grain, oil and food by enterprises above designated size growing by 20.4% and 10.8% over the previous year. The demand for upgraded consumer goods continued to be unleashed, with the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry and that of cultural and office supplies by enterprises above designated size growing by 29.8% and 18.8%, respectively. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.7% year on year, or down by 0.18% month on month. In 2021, national online retail sales reached 13.09 trillion yuan, growing by 14.1% over the previous year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 10.8 trillion yuan, up by 12%, accounting for 24.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
Fifth, investment in fixed assets continued to increase and investment in manufacturing and high-tech industries maintained a good growth momentum.
In 2021, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 54.45 trillion yuan, up by 4.9% over the previous year with an average two-year growth of 3.9%. Specifically, investment in infrastructure rose by 0.4%, manufacturing was up by 13.5% and real estate development was up by 4.4%. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1.79 billion square meters, up by 1.9%. The total sales of commercial buildings were 18.19 trillion yuan, up by 4.8%. In terms of industries, investment in the primary industry went up by 9.1%; that in the secondary industry was up by 11.3%; and that in the tertiary industry was up by 2.1%. Private investment was 30.77 trillion yuan, up by 7%, accounting for 56.5% of the total investment. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 17.1%, 12.2 percentage points faster than the total investment, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 22.2% and 7.9%, respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in electronics and communication equipment manufacturing and in manufacturing of computers and office equipment grew by 25.8% and 21.1%, respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in e-commerce services and services for transformation of scientific and technological achievements grew by 60.3% and 16%, respectively. Investment in the social sector went up by 10.7% over the previous year. Specifically, the investment in the health sector and education sector went up by 24.5% and 11.7%, respectively. In December, the investment in fixed assets grew by 0.22% month on month.
Sixth, the import and export of goods registered fast growth and the trade structure continues to optimize.
The total value of imports and exports of goods in 2021 amounted to 39.1 trillion yuan, up 21.4% year on year. Specifically, the total value of exports reached 21.73 trillion yuan, up by 21.2%; and that of imports was 17.37 trillion yuan, up by 21.5%. The trade balance was 4.37 trillion yuan in surplus. The imports and exports of general trade grew by 24.7%, accounting for 61.6% of the total value of foreign trade, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous year. Imports and exports from private enterprises grew by 26.7%, accounting for 48.6% of the total value of foreign trade, two percentage points higher than that of the previous year. In December, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3.75 trillion yuan, up by 16.7% year on year. Specifically, the total value of exports in December was 2.18 trillion yuan, up by 17.3%; and that of imports was 1.57 trillion yuan, up by 16%. The trade balance was 604.7 billion yuan in surplus.
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Ning Jizhe:
Seventh, consumer prices grew moderately and the growth of producer prices for industrial products decreased from high levels.
The consumer price index (CPI) in 2021 went up by 0.9% over the previous year. Specifically, the CPI went up by 1% in urban areas and 0.7% in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 0.3%; clothing up by 0.3%; housing up by 0.8%; articles and services for daily use up by 0.4%; transportation and communication up by 4.1%; education, culture and recreation up by 1.9%; medical services and health care up by 0.4%; and other articles and services down by 1.3%. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol, prices for grain went up by 1.1%, fresh vegetables up by 5.6%; and pork down by 30.3%. Core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 0.8%. The CPI in December went up by 1.5% year on year, 0.8 percentage points lower compared with the previous month, and down by 0.3% month on month. In 2021, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 8.1% over the previous year. The figure in December went up by 10.3% year on year, 2.6 percentage points lower than the previous month, and down 1.2% month on month. In 2021, the purchasing prices for industrial producers went up by 11% over the previous year. The figure in December went up by 14.2% year on year and down 1.3% month on month.
Eighth, employment was generally stable and surveyed unemployment rates in urban areas declined.
In 2021, the number of new jobs created in urban areas totaled 12.69 million, 0.83 million more than the previous year. The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas in 2021 averaged 5.1%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the average of the previous year. In December, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. Specifically, the surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.1% and that of population with non-local household registration was 4.9%. The surveyed unemployment rate of population aged 16 to 24 was 14.3%, and that of population aged 25 to 59 was 4.4%. In December, the surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1%. The employees of enterprises worked 47.8 hours per week on average. In 2021, the number of rural migrant workers reached 292.51 million, 6.91 million more than that of the previous year, or up by 2.4%. Specifically, local migrant workers totaled 120.79 million, up by 4.1%; migrant workers working away from their hometown totaled 171.72 million, up by 1.3%. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 4,432 yuan, up by 8.8% over the previous year.
Ninth, resident income grew basically in step with economic growth while the urban-rural per capita income ratio narrowed.
In 2021, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 35,128 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.1% over that of the previous year and an average two-year nominal growth of 6.9%; the real growth after deducting price factors was 8.1%, and an average two-year growth of 5.1%, which was basically in step with the growth of the economy. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 47,412 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.2% compared with the previous year and real growth of 7.1% after deducting price factors. That of rural households was 18,931 yuan, a nominal growth of 10.5% compared with the previous year and real growth of 9.7% after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of urban residents was 2.5 times that of rural households, 0.06 less than the ratio of the previous year. The median nationwide per capita disposable income was 29,975 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.8% over that of the previous year. Taking the per capita disposable income of nationwide residents by income quintile, that of the low-income group reached 8,333 yuan, the lower-middle-income group 18,446 yuan, the middle-income group 29,053 yuan, the upper-middle-income group 44,949 yuan, and the high-income group 85,836 yuan. In 2021, the nationwide per capita consumption expenditure was 24,100 yuan, a nominal increase of 13.6% over the previous year, and an average two-year nominal growth of 5.7%; the real growth was 12.6%, and an average two-year growth of 4% after deducting price factors.
Tenth, the total population increased and urbanization rates continued to grow.
By the end of 2021, China's population on the mainland was 1.4126 billion (not excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners living in the mainland's 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities), an increase of 0.48 million over that at the end of the previous year. In 2021, the number of births was 10.62 million and the birth rate was 7.52 per thousand; the number of deaths was 10.14 million and the death rate 7.18 per thousand; the natural growth rate was 0.34 per thousand. In terms of gender, the male population was 723.11 million and the female population was 689.49 million; the sex ratio was 104.88 (the female is 100). In terms of age structures, the working-age population from 16 to 59 was 882.22 million, accounting for 62.5% of the total population; the population aged 60 and over was 267.36 million, accounting for 18.9% of the total population; the population aged 65 and over was 200.56 million, accounting for 14.2% of the total population. In terms of urban-rural structure, the permanent residents in urban areas were 914.25 million, an increase of 12.05 million over the end of the previous year; and the permanent residents in rural areas were 498.35 million, a decrease of 11.57 million. The urban population share in the total population (urbanization rate) was 64.72%, 0.83 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year. The population residing in areas other than their household registration places (refers to the population whose residence and household registration place are not in the same towns or streets and who have been away from their household registration place for over six months) reached 504.29 million, which was 11.53 million more than the previous year. Among them, the floating population stood at 384.67 million, or 8.85 million more than the previous year.
Generally speaking, in 2021, China sustained a continuous and steady recovery of the national economy and maintained a leading position in economic growth and epidemic prevention and control in the world, with major indicators reaching expected targets. However, we must be aware that the external environment is more complicated, severe and uncertain, and the domestic economy is under the pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations. At the next stage, we must continue to take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guideline, and implement the guiding principles of the 19th CPC National Congress, the plenary sessions of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC and the Central Economic Work Conference. We must adhere to the general working guidelines of making progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully implement the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerate the pace to foster a new development paradigm and promote high-quality development. We must coordinate the efforts of epidemic prevention and control as well as economic and social development, continue to ensure stability on six fronts and security in six areas, work hard to stabilize the macro-economy, keep the economy performing within a reasonable range, and ensure social stability so as to greet the opening of the 20th CPC National Congress with practical actions.
That concludes my introduction. Thank you.
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Chen Wenjun:
Thank you, Mr. Ning. Now the floor is open for questions. Please identify the news outlet your work for before raising questions.
CCTV:
The year 2021 marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan. In 2021, China achieved remarkable achievements in coordinating economic development and pandemic prevention and control and maintained stable economic and social development. My questions are for Mr. Ning. What factors played important roles? What do you think of the economy in 2021?
Ning Jizhe:
The year 2021 was a milestone in the history of our Party and our country and was a year of crucial importance for China's modernization progress. In 2021, we solemnly celebrated the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. We realized the first centenary goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects through eliminating absolute poverty. We have embarked on a new journey towards the second centenary goal of making China into a great modern socialist country in all respects. In 2021, facing complex domestics and international landscapes and all kinds of risks and challenges, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core oversaw the general situation and responded with calm. Our country has been in the lead position in both economic development and Covid-19 response through concerted efforts across China, keeping economic performance within an appropriate range. The major tasks and targets of 2021 were completed. We have made new progress in building a new development paradigm and scored new achievements in high-quality development. The 14th Five-Year Plan was off to a good start. The achievements were mainly the six following aspects.
First, China's economic growth has been in the lead worldwide, with notably increased economic strength. China's economic growth ranked among the top in major economies worldwide, with the GDP of 2021 growing by 8.1% year-on-year. Its GDP reached 114.4 trillion yuan, exceeding 110 trillion yuan. That was US$17.7 trillion at the yearly average exchange rate, which ranked second globally and was estimated to account for more than 18% of the global economy. The per capita GDP was 80,976 yuan and US$12,551, at the yearly average exchange rate exceeding US$12,000 . At the end of 2021, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$3.2502 trillion, the largest in the world.
Second, the national economy has continued to recover, meeting all major projected goals. In March 2021, the Government Work Report passed by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress proposed major projected targets for economic and social development in 2021. According to the statistics, the economy grew quite fast. In 2021, the GDP growth rate was 8.1%, higher than the projected target of 6%. The economy increased by 18.3%, 7.9%, 4.9%, and 4.0% in the first, second, third, and fourth quarter, respectively, year-on-year, with an average two-year growth of 4.9%, 5.5%, 4.9%, and 5.2% respectively. The two-year average growth rate of the fourth quarter was higher than that of the third quarter, which demonstrated stable economic performance and employment. In 2021, 12.69 million urban jobs were added, meeting the expected target of more than 11 million. The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1%, lower than the target of around 5.5%. The consumption price rose mildly. The CPI in 2021 increased by 0.9% year-on-year, lower than the target of around 3%.
A basic equilibrium in the balance of payments was maintained. The surplus of the imports and exports of goods expanded 20.4% year-on-year in 2021, achieving steady increases in both the volume and quality of imports and exports. By the end of 2021, the foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$3.2 trillion for 8 consecutive months. The growth of resident income was basically in line with the economic expansion. The per capita disposable income of Chinese citizens rose 8.1% from the previous year and a two-year average growth of 5.1%, which kept pace with the economic growth, meeting the target of scoring a steady increase in personal income. The energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped. According to preliminary estimates, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2021 decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, very close to the target of around 3%. The grain output reached a record high. Last year's total grain output was 682.85 million tons, achieving the target of more than 650 million tons.
Third, the innovation momentum has been intensified with the rapid growth of the industrial manufacturing industry. In 2021, the national spending on R&D increased by 14.2%, 4 percentage points higher than the growth rate last year, maintaining a two-digit growth since the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020). The spending on R&D accounted for 2.44% of the GDP, up 0.03 percentage points than last year. Specifically, the basic research spending grew by 15.6% year-on-year, accounting for 6.09% of the total R&D spending, up by 0.08 percentage points than last year. In 2021, the total value-added by industrial enterprises rose by 9.6%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of GDP. Specifically, the value-added by the manufacturing industry increased by 9.8%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of all industries. The equipment manufacturing industry above designated size surged 12.9%, 3.3 percentage points higher than all industries above designated size.
Fourth, foreign trade and investment have grown rapidly, and opening up has been continuously expanded. As a result, the volume and quality of trade goods have increased. In 2021, China's total goods imports and exports expanded 21.4% year-on-year to 39.1 trillion yuan, scoring a two-year average growth of 11.3%. Counted by US dollars, the trade volume was US$6.05 trillion, accounting for a larger proportion in the global market. The imports and exports of general trade made up 61.6% of the total trade volume, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. Trade in services has continued to recover. From January to November 2021, the total trade in services increased by 14.7% year-on-year, with services exports up by 31.5%. The investment attracted set a new record. The actual utilized foreign capital in 2021 was 1.1494 trillion yuan, up by 14.9%.
Fifth, the reform on the economic system has continued to deepen, further unleashing development vitality. Market entities increased a lot. Reforms to streamline administration, delegate powers, improve regulation, and upgrade services continued apace. At the end of 2021, the total number of market entities in China exceeded 150 million, with more than 40 million enterprises and more than 100 million self-employed businesses. Diverse forms of ownership have developed side by side. Among the industries above designated size in 2021, value-added by enterprises with state-held controlling stakes, corporate enterprises, private enterprises, and foreign, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan invested enterprises increased by 8.0%, 9.8%, 10.2%, and 8.9%, respectively, all rising at a similar pace. Rapid growth has been made in new industries, new business forms, and new models. In 2021, the value-added by high-tech manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 18.2% year-on-year, 8.6 percentage points higher than that of the industries above designated size. The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12%, accounting for 24.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
Sixth, efforts to ensure people's livelihoods have been firm and effective, increasing people's sense of fulfillment. As a result, people's income has increased at a fast pace. In 2021, Chinese citizens' net income from wages and salaries, net business income, and net property income grew by 9.6%, 11.0%, and 10.2%, respectively. As a result, the urban-rural income gap has been narrowed. The urban-rural per capita disposable income ratio of 2021 was 2.5, which was 0.06 percentage points lower than 2020. The production and sales of basic consumption goods in 2021 have seen steady growth. The value-added by the consumer goods manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 9.8% year-on-year. The retail sales of grain, oil and foodstuff, beverages, and daily necessities by enterprises above designated size all registered a two-digit growth. The investment to improve living standards has expanded. The investment in social sectors increased by 10.7% year-on-year. Specifically, education and public health investment grew by 11.7% and 24.5%, respectively. Thank you.
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Phoenix TV:
What were the contribution rates of the fourth quarter's economic growth and the “troika” (investment, consumption and exports) to the overall economic growth of 2021? On the basis of the data, what progress has been made in the construction of a new development paradigm? In addition, in the face of the complex economic situation, how do you think the impetus of economic growth will shift? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
The impetus of economic growth can be measured from the perspective of supply, or in other words, the three industries. It can also be measured from the perspective of demand, or in other words, the “troika.” So, your question is very targeted. The year 2021 is the starting year for our country in forming a new development paradigm. In the face of multiple tests like the complex and severe international environment, and frequent and sporadic domestic outbreaks of the pandemic, China has taken advantage of its super large-scale market, continued to deepen reform and opening up, proactively boosted the domestic and global economy, and made strides toward establishing a new development paradigm. This was shown in four main aspects:
First, during the whole year, three key demands all made contributions to economic growth. In 2021, the final consumption expenditure, the gross capital formation, and the net export of commodities and services drove the economy to grow by 5.3, 1.1 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, and their contribution rates to economic growth were 65.4%, 13.7% and 20.9%, respectively. In the fourth quarter, the final consumption expenditure, the gross capital formation, and the net export of commodities and services drove the economy to grow by 3.4, -0.5 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, and their contribution rates to economic growth were 85.3%, -11.6% and 26.4%, respectively. Although the contribution rate of the gross capital formation to economic growth was negative, fixed assets investment rose after a fall in December. During the whole year, the planned gross investment of new projects grew by 3.3% year on year, rising consecutively in November and December with signs of rising from a fall.
Second, the principal role of domestic circulation was enhanced. We have further implemented the strategy of expanding domestic demand. The leading role of domestic circulation in economic development has been greatly enhanced. In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 40 trillion yuan, up by 12.5% year on year. The fixed assets investment exceeded 50 trillion yuan, up by 4.9%. The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 79.1%, growing by 4.4 percentage points compared with the previous year. Economic growth was mainly driven by domestic demand.
Third, domestic and international circulations reinforced each other. The advantage of a super large-scale market was displayed, and the expansion of domestic demand propelled imports. The advantages of complete industrial system and stable production capacity were given full play, and the expansion of external demand promoted exports. In 2021, China's total import and export volume reached a record high. Import and export volume grew by 21.5% and 21.2%, respectively, year on year. Both the domestic and external demands played important roles and interacted with each other.
Fourth, the cycle of production, distribution, circulation and consumption was improved. In the production link, the expansion of production laid a foundation for improving the cycle. In 2021, the added value of industrial enterprises with annual revenue of 20 million yuan or more grew by 9.6% year on year. Growth was seen in 95.1% of the industrial sector and 73.4% of products, respectively. In the distribution link, the growth of business income, salaries and profits were the main sources of the primary distribution. From January to November in 2021, the business income of 41 major industrial categories achieved growth year on year. Growth was seen in 100% of industries. The profits of 31 industries realized growth year on year. Growth was seen in over 80% of industries. The salaries of employees also increased. The revenue in national general public budget grew by 12.8% year on year, maintaining double-digit growth. In the circulation link, the smooth freight transport ensured the economic recovery and foreign trade. In 2021, China's freight transport volume and cargo throughput at ports increased by 12.4% and 6.8% over last year, respectively. In the consumption link, the expansion of employment and growth of incomes propped up the recovery in consumption growth. In 2021, China's per capita consumption expenditure grew by 12.6% in real terms year on year. Due to the impact of the year before last, the average growth rate of the past two years reached 4.0%.
In the face of the complex and severe economic situation, the fundamentals sustaining China's long-term economic growth and the advantages of forming a new development paradigm remain unchanged, and new drivers of economic growth will continue to emerge. In the next phase, the impetus of economic growth will come from not only the pull of the “troika,” but also the propelling of supply; not only the expansion of domestic demand, but also that of external demand; not only the increase of consumption, but also that of investment; and not only the promotion of reform, but also that of innovation. We have the confidence, strength, capacity and conditions to realize steady and sound economic development. Thank you.
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Yicai:
In 2021, the growth of fixed assets investment was sluggish. This year, with the acceleration of the issue of special bonds and the launch of a batch of key projects, will the growth of investment pick up? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
The fixed assets investment is one important carrier of the “troika” I mentioned just now. The statistics of fixed assets investment for the whole year were just released, and now I will elaborate on the overall investment situation.
Generally, investment maintained its recovery momentum in 2021. During the past year, the continuous expansion of investment scale and the improvement of the structure have played important roles in optimizing supply structure, enhancing supply quality, and reinforcing weak links.
First, the investment scale continued to expand. In 2021, the fixed assets investment (excluding rural households) exceeded 50 trillion yuan and reached 54.5 trillion yuan, up by 4.9% over last year, with an average growth rate of 3.9% in the past two years. The average two-year growth rate rose by 0.1 percentage point compared with the first three quarters.
Second, investment in the manufacturing industry improved. In 2021, investment in the manufacturing industry grew by 13.5% year on year, with the average two-year growth rate reaching 4.8%, 0.9 percentage point higher than that of the whole investment. Investment in technological upgrading in the manufacturing industry increased by 13.6% year on year, continuously higher than the general growth rate of manufacturing investment.
Third, investment in the high-tech industries enjoyed good momentum. In 2021, investment in high-tech industries increased by 17.1% year on year, with the average two-year growth rate reaching 13.8%, 9.9 percentage points higher than that of the total investment.
Fourth, investment in the social domain grew swiftly. In 2021, the growth rate of investment in the social domain was 5.8 percentage points higher than that of the total investment.
The investment growth trend in the next phase has attracted a lot of attention. Currently, the international environment is complicated and severe, and the pandemic continues to have great impact, hindering investment growth to some extent. However, from the perspective of China's development phase, there is potential, space and impetus for expanding effective investment.
First, investment in promoting development has great potential. China is still the world's largest developing country. The per capita GDP is less than one fifth of that of the United States and one third of that of Japan. The infrastructure capital stock per capita is only 20%-30% of that of developed countries. Promoting high-quality development and building a modern socialist country still requires the continuous expansion of effective investment.
Second, there is a broad investment space to make up for weaknesses. The issue of unbalanced and inadequate development is still prominent, and there is still a large gap between the development of urban and rural areas. Many weak links still exist in infrastructure and areas related to people's livelihoods. The per capita input for public facilities of farmers is only about one-fifth of that of urban residents. There is a broad investment space to make up for weaknesses.
Third, there has been sufficient motivation for innovation investment. With the increasing driving role of innovation, industrial upgrading remains a steady development. Enterprises have been continuously increasing innovation investment, boosting innovation development, and fostering a new development paradigm, which will be a huge investment push. This year, we will introduce a series of policies and measures which will be conducive to investment in manufacturing, R&D, and technological upgrading. Last year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 17.1% year on year. In terms of capital, China has a high total national savings rate, and social funds are generally adequate. China has also been able to provide good supporting conditions for production and construction. China has both the needs and favorable conditions for expanding effective investment.
Fourth, policies such as adopting an appropriate forward-thinking plan for infrastructure are gaining momentum. Since the second half of last year, the issuance of special bonds by local governments has been accelerated, and investment from the central government budget has also been accelerated. 102 key projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan have been launched continuously. We have launched projects concerning new infrastructure and new urbanization initiatives as well as major transportation and water conservancy projects in an orderly manner. Enhanced policy support, which includes fiscal and monetary investment, has been conducive to the steady recovery of fixed-asset investment. In terms of leading indicators for investment, from January to December 2021, 287,760 new projects were launched, 36,767 more than the period from January to November. The planned gross investment of new projects grew by 3.3% year on year, 0.6 percentage point faster than the growth rate of the January-November period, and has risen consecutively in the last two months. Since the beginning of this year, a batch of key projects have been launched in different regions as planned, and these projects come with the potential for investment growth. Thanks.
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Economic Daily:
Hello, Mr. Ning, you have just introduced that China's GDP exceeded 110 trillion yuan in 2021, and its share in global GDP has continued to increase. The per capita GDP is projected to exceed $12,000, which is close to the World Bank's threshold for high-income countries. What does the National Bureau of Statistics say about this? What do these changes mean? Thanks.
Ning Jizhe:
China's GDP reached 110 trillion yuan, which is indeed a landmark event, and the per capita GDP has also increased accordingly. Last year, both the size of China's economy and its per capita level continued to grow. It means that China's comprehensive national strength, social productivity, and people's living standards have been further improved. It also means that China has a firmer foundation, better conditions, and stronger driving force for development and is contributing to the global development as well.
First, this means that China's comprehensive national strength has been further enhanced. Our economy has further expanded. In 2021, China's GDP exceeded 110 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. Last year, nominal GDP rose from 101 trillion yuan to 114 trillion yuan, an increase of about 13 trillion yuan. This increase, converted at an average annual exchange rate, amounts to $2 trillion, which is equal to the annual economic aggregate of a quite large major economy. If the exchange rate factor was considered, the increase would be more than $2 trillion. According to the statistics released earlier, China's GDP is equal to $17.7 trillion this year, and it was $14.7 trillion last year. Due to the appreciation of the RMB last year, the calculated increment is $3 trillion. The total size of the economy and the amount of economic growth have not come easily. At the same time, the added values of the total industry and the manufacturing industry were 37.3 trillion yuan and 31.4 trillion yuan, respectively, ranking first in the world for more than 10 consecutive years. China's total trade in goods and foreign exchange reserves both rank first in the world. And there is no doubt that China ranks second in the areas of trade in services, outbound investment, and domestic consumption market, even though figures for several countries have not yet been made available. China's per capita GDP exceeded 80,000 yuan, which is equal to $12,551 at the average annual exchange rate. Although it has not yet reached the lower limit of the per capita level of high-income countries, it is approaching. In 2021, China exceeded the global average per capita GDP. According to preliminary estimates, the global average per capita GDP will be about $12,100, while China's is $12,500.
Second, this means that China's social productivity has further improved. The output of major industrial and agricultural products continued to rank among the top in the world. In 2021, China's total grain output exceeded 1.3 trillion jin (650 million metric tons). According to global statistics, China ranks first in total grain output in the world. The outputs of seed cotton, peanuts (one of the main oil crops), meat, tea, and fruit all rank first in the world. These outputs are real and comparable. In the past, grain was taken as the top priority in agriculture, and steel was taken as the top priority of industry. Now, the output of crude steel was 1.03 billion metric tons, and power generation reached 8.1 trillion kWh. Meanwhile, fertilizer output was 54.46 million metric tons, cloth output was 39.6 billion meters, and automobile output was 26.53 million. The output of microcomputer equipment was 470 million units, and the output of mobile phones was 1.66 billion units. These all rank first in the world. China also leads the world in the output of more than 220 major products, and in fact, it is more than this, and it indicates social productivity has increased. At the same time, China's scientific and technological strength has also improved significantly. Currently, the full-time equivalent of research and development personnel in China exceeds 5 million person-years. By the end of 2021, the number of in-force patents issued in China was 3.597 million, and the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people reached 7.5, an increase of 1.2 over the previous year.
Third, it also means the living standards of the Chinese people further improved. Employment continued to expand. In 2021, more than 12 million new jobs were created. Residents' income and consumption maintained rapid growth. China's per capita disposable income stood at 35,000 yuan in 2021, up 8.1% year on year in real terms. The nationwide per capita consumption expenditure reached 24,000 yuan, up 12.6% in real terms. The Engel coefficient, which reflects the consumption structure, states that the percentage of income allocated for food expenditure decreases as income rises. In 2021, the Engel coefficient was 29.8%, 0.4 percentage point lower than the previous year.
Fourth, it means that China's international influence has further expanded. China's economy has maintained rapid growth, which has driven global economic growth. In 2020, the world economy saw negative growth, while China's economy grew positively, playing a significant role in driving economic recovery globally. In 2021, China's contribution rate to the world's GDP growth was expected to reach about 25%, making it an important force leading the world's economic recovery. This can only be forecast because data from around the world has not yet been collected. At the same time, China's coordinated fight against the epidemic has made a huge contribution to the global anti-pandemic development. Over the past year or so, sticking to the approach of “preventing the coronavirus from entering the country and stem its domestic resurgence,” China has taken the lead in bringing the epidemic under control on its home soil, ensuring the health and safety of its 1.4 billion people. This in itself is a major contribution to the world's anti-pandemic efforts. By the end of last year, China had provided 372 billion masks, more than 4.2 billion protective suits, 8.4 billion test reagents, and more than 2 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine to more than 120 countries and international organizations, making China the largest supplier of COVID-19 vaccines.
At the same time, we should be soberly aware that China remains a upper-middle-income country and its per capita GDP has not reached the threshold for high-income countries, and there is still a big gap between China and developed countries. China remains the largest developing country in the world. Its basic national condition remains unchanged, and it will remain in the primary stage of socialism for a long time. Right now, China is facing the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations. Based on the new stage of development, we need to fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new vision of development. We need to work hard and tirelessly to speed up the building of a new development paradigm, keep the economy operating within a proper range, promote high-quality development, and further enhance China's overall national strength, social productivity, and people's living standards. Thank you.
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CNBC:
I have two questions. The first one is about employment. Are there any data where we can see if the proportion of young people in urban and rural areas has changed? And the second: In the growth of the secondary and tertiary industries in the fourth quarter, there are some obvious differences from that of the whole of last year. For example, the secondary industry grew by 2.5% in the fourth quarter and 8.2% for the whole year. The tertiary industry grew by 4.6% in the fourth quarter and 8.2% for the whole year. What are the main reasons for this gap? With the enhanced epidemic prevention measures in January, are there any insights into how we can predict economic growth this year? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
I will focus on the first of your two questions. The first one is about industry and industrial employment. You also mentioned the employment in urban and rural areas. In the data I just released, there is already information about newly-created jobs in urban areas. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate and the surveyed unemployment rate for big cities were also released. Your question focuses on the performance of certain industries. The situation in some of the industries might be different. It is fair to say that in the past year, the increase of new urban employment and the surveyed unemployment rate remained stable in China. Both have achieved their expected goals, or we can say the surveyed unemployment rate is lower than expected. The main reasons are as follows:
First, the continuous recovery and development of the economy has created new jobs and laid the foundation for employment. China's GDP grew by 8.1% in 2021. The economic output in the fourth quarter slowed to 4% year-on-year, but in terms of the two-year average, though the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 grew relatively faster at 6.4%, after been revising down from the previous 6.5%, the two-year average growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 registered 5.2%, 0.3 percentage points faster than the 4.9% in the third quarter. The steady economic growth has provided an important foundation for employment. When we observe economic growth, we should look not only at the year-on-year data but also the month-on-month data and the average data of two years. In fact, it also offered some tips to your second question.
Second, the policy of prioritizing employment has produced remarkable results. A series of policies that were designed to help enterprises and stabilize jobs have played a positive role in the employment of college graduates, rural migrant workers, and other key groups. The total number of migrant workers in 2021 was 292.51 million, an increase of 6.91 million over 2020. The number in 2020 is lower than that in 2019. The number in 2021 has already exceeded the level of 2019 before the COVID-19 epidemic. Please pay attention to this. At the same time, the surveyed unemployment rate of migrant agricultural residents has remained at a low of less than 5% since the second half of last year.
Third, new forms of employment are flourishing. China's new industries, new forms of business, and new models continued to develop rapidly last year, with various flexible employment models absorbing a lot of the labor force. At present, there are about 200 million people working flexible jobs in China, with food deliverymen accounting for about 4 million and online broadcasters and related employees accounting for more than 1.6 million on some platforms, nearly three times that of last year.
Fourth, employment in some industries increased considerably. Although the number of employees in some service industries, manufacturing, and construction has dropped, the number in other industries has increased, underpinning the overall stability of employment. From November to December in 2021, the number of workers in the wholesale and retail industry; transportation, warehousing, and postal industries; residential service industry; and commercial service industry rose by 1.81 million, 410,000, 330,000, and 280,000, respectively, which has offset the declines in employment in other sectors.
Fifth, the surveyed unemployment rate shows that some people have temporarily withdrawn from the labor market. While the surveyed urban unemployment rate focuses on the urban labor market, we have also carried out surveys in rural areas. The national surveyed unemployment rate is generally lower than that of urban areas. However, from the perspective of urban and rural areas, if a migrant worker returns to the countryside, then the person no longer belongs to the urban labor market, and should be included in the labor force survey in the countryside. In addition, from the perspective of the city itself, some people are counted as “not in the labor force” due to reasons like seasonal business closures, or to take care of their families, health, education, and training. For example, workers in agriculture or construction will temporarily withdraw from the labor force in winter.
Your second question is about the gap between the service sector and the industrial sector. Thanks to a series of policies and measures supporting the industrial sector as well as the joint efforts of enterprises, the industrial sector and manufacturing sector maintained recovery momentum in the fourth quarter. You just mentioned statistics of the service sector. The service sector, which contains many industries, grew rapidly in general. The annual growth rate of both the service sector and industrial sector reached 8.2%. The impact of the service sector on employment should be reviewed based on different industries. It has exerted a greater impact on some industries, such as high-contact service industries and those with a high-density work environment, and has had a lesser impact on industries supporting freight transport, logistics, and industrial chains. So we must stabilize and promote the growth of those industries that ensure normal life and work, and follow routine, targeted COVID-19 protocols to ensure a good environment for economic and social development.
Because this year's first-quarter statistics are expected to be released in April, we have to take some targeted measures according to the situation last year to ensure employment and reasonable economic growth. Thank you.
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Reuters:
Would you please preview the development prospects in 2022 and what are the main downward pressures and risks of China's economic growth this year? Will China scale up stabilizing economic growth to keep the major economic indicators within an appropriate range? Will China relax its policies to regulate and control the real estate market? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
You have raised several questions. The first two are relatively similar and involve this year's economic growth. This year marks the gradual recovery of China's economy, but the current external environment is grave and made complex by many uncertainties, and as you can see, domestic development is also under pressure. Despite these risks and challenges, taken overall, the momentum of sustained economic recovery, factors that keep the major economic indicators within an appropriate range, and conditions that support high-quality development all remain unchanged. The economy is expected to make progress while maintaining stability throughout the entire year.
First, China has been at the global forefront in terms of regularized pandemic control and made notable progress in coordinating epidemic control with economic and social development. The order of life and work is generally stable in the country, which has promoted sustained economic growth and ensured overall social stability. Up to now, China has reported the smallest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the lowest death toll among the world's major economies. China has administered 2.93 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines, and a total of 1.22 billion people have been fully vaccinated – the most among the major economies of the world – providing a general line of defense for economic growth.
Second, China's industrial supply system is complete. As we have mentioned many times, our country features every industrial category, with a complete industrial system and supporting system. In addition, the industrial and supply chains are resilient and can quickly adapt to the changes in demands of the market and thus boost the increase in supply. For example, the market suffered from a shortage of chips and containers last year. In addition to imports, China's own output of integrated circuits increased by 33.3%, and thus quickly increased supply. Facing a shortage of metal containers, China's output of containers grew 110.6%, allowing the shortage of chips and containers to be slightly alleviated. Amid the pandemic, the demand for office supplies for working at home boomed domestically and abroad. Some products might not otherwise sell well, but they have become popular after people needed them to work at home. The output of microcomputer equipment has not risen at such a fast rate for a long time, increasing by 22.3% in 2021. Meanwhile, the total output of smartphones last year was 1.7 billion, increasing by 9%, all of which indicates that there is a sizable demand. Working at home has also boosted the demand for eating at home, with fresh and frozen meat output increasing 24.5% and beverage output increasing 12%. All these examples indicate that we can produce what the market needs. It is the same for this year. As long as the media reports the world's demands, we will have market entities make efforts to produce and provide supplies, which will naturally promote economic growth, expand employment, and increase income.
Third, the space for growth is large for China's super-large scale market. Our country has more than 1.4 billion people, with more than 400 million middle-income earners, which is the foundation for us to cope with various risks and challenges and build a strong domestic market. Due to the impact of the pandemic, retail sales of consumer goods decreased in 2020. But it grew back in 2021, reaching 44 trillion yuan. Although the growth rate was relatively low, it was not easy to achieve. The 44 trillion yuan in consumer goods sales represents a new milestone. The total investment was huge – the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 79.1% for the whole year – and final consumption was 65.4%, which highlights the significant role of the domestic market.
Fourth, we also have the dividends of reform and opening-up. Diverse forms of ownership develop together. According to statistics, the value-added industrial growth of private enterprises scored double-digit growth. China's imports and exports to its major trade partners maintained rapid growth last year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs a few days ago. Meanwhile, China is a major trade partner of more than 120 countries around the world. Up to the end of last year, China has signed BRI cooperation documents with 145 countries, and its total import and export volume with countries involved in the Belt and Road rose by more than 20%.
Fifth, China has outstanding economic governance capability. In recent years, China has continued to make fresh innovations in macro-control. We have enhanced targeted, well-timed, and precise regulation on the basis of range-based control, accumulating rich regulation experience and contributing to stable economic development. Since 2020, facing the spread of pandemic around the world, we have maintained strategic focus. Instead of resorting to massive stimulus measures, we put into place assistance policies based on market entities, which has promoted economic recovery and achieved remarkable results. At present, China's inflation rate and government debt are low. There is space for monetary policies, and we have at our disposal a fairly substantial toolkit for macro-control, which enables China to maintain stable economic performance.
Regarding quarterly growth, first, let us review the quarterly data over the past year. Just now, I announced the year-on-year growth rate and two-year average growth rate. Now, let us look at the quarter-on-quarter growth rate, that is, comparing each quarter with the previous quarter. The first quarter of 2021 saw a 0.3% increase in economic aggregate, rising a little compared with the fourth quarter of 2020; the second quarter of 2021 grew 1.3% from the first; the third quarter rose 0.7% compared with the second; and the fourth quarter increased 1.6% from the third. These figures show that China's economic aggregate kept expanding quarterly last year. The fourth quarter saw an increase of 3.43 trillion yuan over the third, with the quarter-on-quarter growth rate up 0.9 percentage point. Therefore, the Chinese economy is showing an increasingly stable development momentum.
Issues in the real estate industry are also quite important. The just-released data shows that our real estate market was generally stable in 2021. We adhered to the principle that housing is for living in rather than for speculation and actively implemented a long-term mechanism. We did not take real estate as a tool and means to stimulate short-term economic growth but made efforts to stabilize the price of land and houses, and the expectations, actively preventing potential risks. The real estate market remained generally stable.
First, real estate sales kept rising, and real estate transactions logged an overall increase. In 2021, the floor area of sold commercial housing nationwide reached 1.8 billion square meters, up 1.9% compared with the previous year, and the sales hit 18.19 trillion yuan, increasing 4.8% over the previous year.
Second, investment in real estate kept expanding. In 2021, the investment in real estate development was 14.76 trillion yuan, up 4.4% year on year, and residential investment rose 6.4%, 2 percentage points higher than the total investment in the industry.
Third, real estate prices were generally stable. In December 2021, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities rose 4.4%, 2.8%, and 0.9%, respectively, year on year.
Fourth, the development of government-subsidized housing continued to be pushed forward. From January to November 2021, China renovated about 1.94 million housing units in rundown urban areas and began the construction of 86,000 public rental housing units, with an investment of 913.1 billion yuan and 17.8 billion yuan, respectively.
The statistics showed that investment in real estate is expected to see stable and healthy development in 2022. Some of the just-released data is related to demand in the industry, which would be steadily unleashed.
First, China's urbanization rate of permanent residents continued to increase last year, but the country is still in the development stage of urbanization. At the end of 2021, permanent residents in urban areas increased by 12.05 million year on year. Those people needed housing in cities while mostly maintaining their rural homes. In particular, the migrant population — defined by people who move a relatively long distance — reached 384.67 million, 8.85 million more than the previous year. The population who resided in areas other than where their household registration was registered was larger than the migrant population. All of these factors have brought about a new demand for housing. With the advancement of a new model of urbanization, residents' desire for normal housing consumption will turn into a reality. Then, with the support of financial and other policies, the urban housing needs, especially for improved housing, will continue to be released.
Moreover, the market supply of the real estate industry is gradually optimizing. With the steady advancement of real estate regulation policies, real estate developing enterprises maintain sound growth, and the industry is heading in an intensive, highly-efficient, long-term, healthy, and stable direction. As we see, the 2021 data showed that the added value of the real estate industry saw a negative growth in the fourth quarter, but the total added value reached 7.76 trillion yuan for the whole year. The added value of the construction industry amounted to 8 trillion yuan. The two together accounted for 14% of the country's GDP. We encouraged both the rental and purchase of housing, accelerated the development of the long-term rental housing market, promoted the development of government-subsidized housing, and ensured that the commercial housing market could better meet the rational demand of house purchasers. In this way, we are speeding up the establishment of a multi-tiered housing system including commercial housing and government-subsidized housing. The real estate market supply pattern will also be gradually put in place, featuring multi-suppliers, multi-channel guarantee, and a two-pronged approach of rental and commercial housing. From January to November 2021, a total of 120.5 billion yuan was invested to build 860,000 rental housing units across the country.
Third, city-specific policies have helped promote a virtuous circle for the real estate industry. It is very important to develop the real estate industry according to local conditions. We have always kept in mind the principle that houses are for living in, not for speculation, and have maintained a stable housing price, stable land price, and stable expectations. To regulate the real estate market, we have implemented various policies in different cities. This is beneficial to both the smooth operation of the real estate market and ensuring the fulfillment of people's normal housing needs. In recent years, we have supported the renovation of buildings where middle- and low-income groups lived as well as old residential communities, boosting the healthy development of the industry. From January to November 2021, we began the renovation of 54,700 old urban residential communities, exceeding the annual targets.
Lastly, the growth of the real estate industry has driven the economic growth overall. In 2021, the added value of the real estate industry rose 5.2% year on year, adding 0.4 percentage point to overall economic growth; the added value of the construction industry increased 2.1%, boosting overall economic growth by 0.2 percentage point. From the perspective of industry expectations, in December 2021, the commercial activity index of the construction industry was 56.3%, maintaining a relatively high range of over 55% for 10 consecutive months. As the long-term mechanism of the real estate industry keeps improving and the effects of city-specific policies continue to emerge, the industry is expected to maintain a smooth running in 2022. Thank you!
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ThePaper.cn:
In 2021, the number of newborns nationwide hit a new low for recent years. How will this affect China's economy? When will China enter a negative population growth phase? In addition, how will the three-child policy impact future population growth? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
At the request of the SCIO, the National Bureau of Statistics and the seventh national census office released census data last year. Based on the data I just presented, your questions make a lot of sense. In 2021, China's population maintained steady growth.
First, the total population continued to grow. By the end of 2021, China had a population of 1.413 billion. The number of births totaled 10.62 million, and the number of deaths reached 10 million for the first time, registering a net increase of 480,000 and a natural growth rate of 0.34 per thousand.
Second, the working-age population remained relatively stable. By the end of 2021, the working-age population, or those between 16 and 59 was 882 million, accounting for 62.5% of the total. The population aged 60 and over was 267 million, among whom 200 million were aged 65 and above, making up 18.9% and 14.2%, respectively, of the total population.
Third, the urban population increased considerably. By the end of 2021, permanent residents in urban areas reached 914 million, an increase of more than 12 million over the end of the previous year, while permanent residents in rural areas were nearly 500 million. The urbanization rate of permanent residents registered 64.72%, 0.83 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year.
Fourth, the floating population grew significantly. By the end of 2021, the population who resided in areas other than their household registration reached 504 million, which was 11.53 million more than the previous year. Specifically, the floating population stood at 385 million, 8.85 million more than the previous year.
The birth decline you are concerned about resulted from multiple factors. The slowdown in population growth is an objective result stemming from China's economy, especially industrialization and urbanization, developing into a certain stage. Aging and fewer children are also common problems faced by developed countries and even some emerging economies. In 2021, China had fewer births than in the previous year, which led to a lower birth rate. The main reasons for this are as follows:
First, the number of women of childbearing age continued to decrease. In 2021, there were about 5 million fewer women of childbearing age – from 15 to 49 – than in the previous year; the number of those in their prime of childbearing age – from 21 to 35 – dropped by about 3 million.
Second, the fertility rate continued to fall. In recent years, shifting thoughts about childbearing and people delaying marriage and starting a family, coupled with factors involving the cost of childbearing, have made young people less willing to have a baby.
Third, to some extent, COVID-19 has also delayed the marriage and childbearing plans of young people. Multiple international studies found that fertility rates have decreased in many countries and regions since the outbreak of the pandemic. In 2020, both Japan and South Korea saw fewer births than in the previous year.
China's population will remain above 1.4 billion for some time to come.
First, the total number of women of childbearing age is relatively large. China has a large population base with more than 300 million women of childbearing age, and we are able to sustain over 10 million births every year. The total population will maintain a certain level of growth.
Second, the three-child policy will gradually generate effects. Over the past decade, policies including the two-child policy for couples in which either the husband or wife is from a single-child family, and the universal two-child policy have positively increased births. According to the seventh national census data, the number of children aged 0-14 in 2020 was over 30 million more than that in 2010, and the proportion of children rose by 1.35 percentage points, which was mainly driven by the two "two-child" polices. Among the births, the proportion of second children rose from about 30% in 2013 to about 43% in 2021. In May 2021, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed further optimizing the birth policy by allowing a couple to have three children and adopting supporting measures. Specific implementation schemes have been formulated in localities and the policy will gradually play its role.
Third, life expectancy has continued to rise. Significant progress in medical and health conditions, as well as continuous improvements to living standards, have led to a consistently rising life expectancy, and the fact that the number of deaths in China has been less than the number of births helps the total population maintain its growth trend. The potential of some delayed births will continue to be released in the future. All these factors will play a positive role in keeping the total population basically stable. Thank you.
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Chen Wenjun:
The press conference has been going on for 85 minutes and the journalists are still eager to raise questions. We will take the last three questions.
CNR:
We have also noted that China's grain output hit a new high in 2021. Will China's agricultural production be consolidated amid new developments in 2022 and what are the main reasons? In addition, we also see that international grain prices rose sharply in 2021 and many countries faced significant inflation. How has China's food security been affected? Can we guarantee the food supply? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
Agriculture is the foundation of every industry and food is the basis of our survival. The statistics just released show that grain output in 2021 reached a new level and we had a bumper harvest of agricultural production. Regarding the complicated and changing situation in 2022, such as the rising international prices of some grains you mentioned just now, relevant departments have conducted careful analyses in this regard, the CPC Central Committee has made clear arrangements, and the State Council has introduced related policies as well. As long as the Party continues to prioritize addressing issues related to agriculture, rural areas and rural people, as well as gaining control over our own food supply, we can consolidate the fundamental position of agriculture and ensure the food supply.
In 2021, China's grain and agricultural production gained momentum and the features were as follows:
First, the output of summer grain, early rice and autumn grain increased to 291.9 billion jin (1 kg=2 jin), 56 billion jin and 1,017.8 billion jin, respectively, up 6.2 billion jin, 1.4 billion jin and 19.1 billion jin. This helped total annual grain output reach 1,365.7 billion jin, an increase of 26.7 billion jin over the previous year.
Second, the yield of rice, wheat, corn and tuber rose to 425.7 billion jin, 273.9 billion jin, 545.1 billion jin and 60.9 billion jin, respectively, up 2 billion jin, 5.4 billion jin, 23.8 billion jin and 1.1 billion jin over the previous year.
Third, both sown areas and per unit yields increased. China's total sown grain area hit 1.764 billion mu (117.6 million hectares) in 2021, an increase of 12.95 million mu over the previous year, signaling two consecutive years of growth. Per unit yields of grain reached 387 kilograms per mu, an increase of 4.8 kilograms over the previous year, up 1.2% year on year.
Fourth, the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas as well as the industries of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery were comprehensively developed. In 2021, the value added from farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries reached 8.7 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year on year. The National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the first set of statistics for value added from agriculture and related industries. According to the data, in 2020, the value added of agriculture and related industries hit 16.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 16.47% of the national GDP. The figure is nearly twice that of the farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries. Many enterprises representing secondary and tertiary industries provide services directly to the agricultural sector. For instance, specialized plant protection services and seed services have been categorized in the service industry. Therefore, we decided to work with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to conduct a relevant statistical monitoring project.
This year's grain supplies can be guaranteed, based on the following factors.
First, successive years of increased production have laid a solid foundation. We have seen bumper grain harvests for 18 years in a row. The annual total grain output exceeded 500 billion kg, 550 billion kg, and 600 billion kg between 2007 and 2009, 2010 and 2011, and 2012 and 2014, respectively. This figure has remained above 650 billion kg for seven consecutive years beginning 2015, ensuring basic supplies for the grain market.
Second, we have an adequate stock of grain. At present, the country has sufficient grain reserves, with the two major staples of wheat and rice accounting for more than 70% of the total inventory. The stock of wheat can meet consumption demands for a year and a half. As the inventory of commodities noticeably grew, the stock of wheat and rice increased by more than 50% year on year.
Third, the sown area has likewise expanded in consecutive years. As part of the efforts to enlarge acreage, we have implemented stringent measures to protect farmland and safeguard the "red line" of 1.8 billion mu (120 million hectares) of farmland, strengthened control and regulation of purposes for arable land, and curbed non-agricultural or non-grain-related use of farmland. The sown area of grain across the country in 2021 went up by 0.7% compared to 2020, signaling two consecutive years of growth. In 2020, the multiple cropping index was 1.31. As the double cropping system keeps improving, the efficient utilization of farmland has increased accordingly.
Fourth, per unit yield enjoy huge potential. Although there is still some way to go compared with agriculturally advanced countries, the constant development of agricultural technologies represented by breeding techniques means there is enormous potential for China to increase its per unit yield. According to the survey conducted in 2019, farmland with medium- and low-yield accounted for more than two-thirds of the total. By implementing a strategy of sustainable farmland use and innovative application of agricultural technology, promoting the transformation of farmland with medium- and low-yield, accelerating the cultivation of high-quality farmland and stepping up efforts to develop protected agriculture, our per unit yield will enjoy even greater potential.
Fifth, we have established solid policy mechanisms. The central rural work conference has affirmed the active role of the system in which both CPC committees and governments assume responsibility for safeguarding grain security, and emphasized the importance of ensuring acreage and output in main grain producing and marketing areas,, as well as areas with a balance between production and marketing. With more agricultural-specific policies delivered, farmers are growing more enthusiastic about production. Noticeably, these efforts will help us better respond to various risks and changes at home and abroad. International commodity prices will affect China's domestic markets in the form of imported inflation through the import and export of grain and other raw materials. Additionally, global natural disasters will impact the output, prices and markets as well. The top priority is to run our own affairs well, hold our rice bowls firmly in our own hands and take concrete measures to ensure food security. Thank you.
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China Daily:
What were the new progress and breakthroughs in China's high-quality development for 2021? What aspects should be given more attention when pursuing high-quality development this year? And what about coordinating the relationship between the stable operation of the macro-economy and high-quality development? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
High-quality development is a prominent feature of China's 14th Five-Year Plan. In the past year, all regions and departments across the country thoroughly implemented the new development philosophy and promoted the stability and recovery of the economy while stepping up efforts to deepen reforms, expand opening-up, encourage innovation and accelerate reforms in quality, efficiency and drivers. We have made new achievements in high-quality development which were mainly demonstrated in the following five aspects.
First, innovation-driven development yielded new results. High-tech industries rapidly developed. In 2021, the value added from pharmaceutical, aerospace and equipment manufacturing industries, as well as electronic and communication device manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing industries above the designated size grew by 24.7%, 17%, 18.3% and 18% from the previous year, respectively. All of the above are high-tech industrial manufacturing industries. The valued added of information transmission, software and information technology services industries increased 17.2% year on year. China continued to enhance its national strategic strength in science and technology, witnessing the successful launch of Tianwen 1 Mars probe, the completion of Shenzhou 12 and Shenzhou 13, the operation of the national space laboratory, and other missions accomplished.,
Second, the coordinated development has made new progress. Industrial structures continued adjusting and optimizing. Over the past year, there were two important figures. In 2021, the value added of the manufacturing industry accounted for 27.4% of China's GDP, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year. At the same time, the value added of the service industry accounted for 53.3% of the national GDP, with its contribution rate to economic growth reaching 54.9%, 16.5 percentage points higher than the secondary industry. It's not an easy target for manufacturing and service industries to achieve. The demand structure has steadily improved. In 2021, the domestic demand's contribution rate to economic growth was close to 80%, signaling a growth of 4.4 percentage points over the previous year. The urbanization level has constantly improved. At the end of 2021, the urbanization rate among permanent resident populations grew by 0.83 percentage point compared to the same period of 2020.
Third, green and low-carbon development has made new achievements. We have made solid progress in energy conservation. In 2021, China's energy consumption per unit GDP dropped by 2.7% from the previous year, a big step forward compared to 2020. The statistic in 2020 remained the same as the previous year since the economy was heavily hampered by the epidemic. Clean energy consumption developed rapidly. According to preliminary calculation, the consumption of clean energies such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar accounted for 25.3% of the total energy consumption, one percentage point higher than the previous year. The output of green products has seen rapid growth as well. In 2021, the output of new energy vehicles and solar batteries grew by 145.6% and 42.1% compared to 2020, respectively. All of the figures listed above are extraordinary and suggest that the market enjoys tremendous prospects. The air quality constantly improved as well.
Fourth, we have drawn momentum from opening up to promote high-quality development and realize new breakthroughs. In the past year, China's total import and export of goods increased by 30% to 6 trillion U.S. dollars for the first time, hitting a new high. In addition, the growth rate also reached a record high since 2011; actualized use of foreign investment reached 1.1 trillion yuan, and China's trade volume with economies involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 11.6 trillion yuan; and the number of China-Europe freight train trips surged by 22% year on year to 15,000. In particular, at the beginning of this year, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) officially entered into force, marking the largest free trade zone by far in terms of participating population, trade volume, and development potential. It is certain to promote the development of foreign trade, mutual investment, international trade, and international investment.
Fifth, new progress has been made in sharing the results of development. The income of urban and rural residents continued to grow. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of urban residents rose by 7.1% in real terms, and the per capita disposable income of rural residents rose by 9.7% in real terms. Spending on people's well-being also increased. From January to November, among the expenditure in the national general public budget, expenditures on housing security, education, social security and employment increased by 7.4%, 5.1% and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively.
At present, China's economy has shifted away from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and high-quality development is the theme for China's economic and social development in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) period. To promote high-quality development, we must follow the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, focus on development as the top priority, promote reform and innovation, and pursue supply-side structural reform as our main task. Now, it is necessary to put stable growth in a prominent position, see that the economy operates within an appropriate range, maintain macroeconomic stability, promote high-quality development and the stable operation of the national economy at the same time, and coordinate the reasonable economic growth in volume and stable improvement in quality to ensure stable, sustained, and sound development of China's economy. Thank you.
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Cover News:
Increasing residents' income is an important part of securing people's livelihood. In 2021, what were the features of residents' income growth? Were the income gaps among different groups narrowed? What problems are now left to be resolved? Next, in what areas should we step up our efforts? Thank you.
Ning Jizhe:
In 2021, as China's economy continued to recover, the employment situation was generally stable, the business efficiency of enterprises was improved, and people's basic living needs were effectively secured. All of these promoted the rebound of residents' income and narrowed the income gap. Details are mainly in the following aspects:
First, residents' income grew generally at the same pace as the economic growth. In 2021, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 35,128 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.1% over that of the previous year. The real growth after deducting price factors was 8.1%, an average two-year growth of 5.1%, which was generally at the same pace as the growth of the economy.
Second, all types of incomes achieved overall growth. In 2021, driven by factors such as the deepening reforms to streamline administration and delegate power, improve regulation, and upgrade services and scaled efforts in helping businesses to get through challenges, the per capita net operating income of residents grew the fastest among all types of incomes, with a nominal increase of 11% over the previous year. This marks a change in the operating income of the previous year when COVID-19 took a higher toll on the growth of residents' net income. The policy of reducing burdens, stabilizing jobs, and expanding employment continued in the past year, and the targeted employment assistance for key groups was implemented, which boosted the income growth, with the per capita salary-based incomes of residents up 9.6% in nominal terms over the previous year, and the average monthly income of migrant workers up 8.8%. With the deepening of reforms in the capital market, market-based interest rate, and housing rental market, the per capita net property income of residents increased by 10.2% over the previous year. As the country secured people's livelihoods, with pension benefits being paid on time and in full, and efforts to provide temporary assistance being accelerated, residents' per capita net transfer income increased by 5.8% in nominal terms over the previous year, with an average two-year growth of 7.2%. All types of incomes rose across the board.
Third, the income gap between urban and rural residents continued to narrow. With the deepening of rural vitalization and a focus on agriculture, the income growth among rural residents was significantly faster than that of urban residents. In 2021, the nominal growth and real growth of the per capita disposable income of rural residents stood at 10.5% and 9.7%, respectively, both 2 percentage points faster than that of urban residents. Meanwhile, the per capita disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents was 2.5, down 0.06 percentage point from the previous year. The gap has continued to narrow over the years.
Fourth, the income of residents in the central and western regions grew at a faster pace. As the country implemented major regional strategies and coordinated development strategies, income growth of residents in the central and western regions has been faster than the average rate of the country. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of residents in the central region rose by 9.2%, and that of residents in the western region rose by 9.4%, 0.1 and 0.3 percentage point faster than the national average.
Fifth, the household income of middle- and low-income residents grew faster than that of the whole population. Speaking in terms of China's five income bands, in 2021, the per capita disposable income of people in the lower-income bracket (accounting for 20% of the total population) and in the lower-middle-income bracket (accounting for 20% of the total population) increased by 9.8% over the previous year. The growth rate of the per capita disposable income of the 40% least-wealthy residents was 0.7 percentage point faster than the national average. The per capita disposable income of people in the middle-income bracket (accounting for 20% of the total population) increased by 10.7%, 1.6 percentage points faster than the national average growth rate.
The income issues you are concerned about can be illustrated by specific figures. At the same time, we are soberly aware of the fact that the current downward pressure on China's economy is still relatively large, and the growth of residents' employment and income remains restricted. Though the income distribution gap between urban and rural areas, among regions, and different groups narrowed last year, the overall gap still exists. Next, we will focus on development as the top priority, pursue the people-centered development philosophy, advocate an employment-first strategy, and launch measures to promote income growth. We will also build a basic institution for the coordinated arrangement of primary distribution, redistribution, and third distribution; continue to equalize access to basic public services; gradually narrow the income distribution gap; and take solid steps to promote common prosperity. Thank you.
Chen Wenjun:
Thank you, Mr. Ning, and thanks to friends from the media. Today's press conference concludes here. Goodbye!
Translated and edited by Liu Jianing, Liu Qiang, Mi Xingang, Chen Xia, Yan Xiaoqing, Huang Shan, Xiang Bin, Li Huiru, Yang Xi, Zhang Rui, Zhang Tingting, Wang Wei, Xu Xiaoxuan, Qin Qi, Zhang Junmian, Wang Qian, Zhang Liying, Yuan Fang, Zhu Bochen, Wang Yiming, David Ball, Jay Birbeck, Drew Pittock and Tom Arnstein. In case of any discrepancy between the English and Chinese texts, the Chinese version is deemed to prevail.
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