SCIO briefing on national economic performance in November 2024

China.org.cn | January 8, 2025

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The package of incremental policies has been in place for some time. What's your take on the effects of these policies, and have we met policy expectations? Thank you.

Fu Linghui:

Thank you for your question. There is also a lot of concern regarding the policy effects. With the effective implementation of existing policies and the accelerated rollout of a package of incremental policies, the combined effects of these measures continue to unfold, driving the expansion of domestic demand, promoting commodity production and effectively boosting market confidence. Since October, major economic indicators have rebounded significantly, new growth drivers have continued to strengthen, high-quality development has been steadily advanced and economic operations have shown positive changes. It can be said that both existing policies and incremental policies have played a significant role in promoting economic recovery and growth. This is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, it boosted consumption. The impact of trade-in policies for old consumer goods has become evident, and sales in sectors including home appliances, home furnishings, and automobiles have maintained rapid growth. In November, the retail sales of household appliances, audiovisual equipment, furniture and automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 22.2%, 10.5% and 6.6%, respectively. This had a significant impact on the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and became an important driver for consumption growth.

Second, it stimulated investment. Driven by the construction of projects to implement major national strategies and build up security capacity in key areas and large-scale equipment renewals, investment in key areas and equipment renewals have maintained rapid growth, supporting investment expansion and enhancing medium-term and long-term economic development potential. From January to November, investment in water conservancy management increased by 40.9%; investment in electricity, heat production and supply increased by 29.6%; and investment in equipment and tools procurement increased by 15.8%, contributing 65.3% to the total investment growth. This surge in investment has become an important supporting factor for investment expansion.

Third, it drove production. The construction of projects to implement major national strategies and build up security capacity in key areas, coupled with policies to facilitate large-scale equipment renewal and encourage consumer goods trade-ins have effectively driven the production of related investment products and consumer goods by releasing potential market demand, thereby promoting expansion on the production side. In November, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate up by 1 percentage point from the previous month. It contributed nearly 50% to the growth of the added value of industries above the designated size. The production of durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances have maintained rapid growth. In November, automobile production increased by 15.2%. The production of air conditioners and color TV sets both achieved double-digit growth.

Fourth, it activated the market. Thanks to various policies that curbed the downturn of the real estate market and boosted the capital market, the two markets saw significant improvements in October. Positive factors continued to accumulate in November, with market transactions being relatively active. In November, the sales area and sales value of newly built commercial housing achieved positive growth, particularly in key cities. The stock market was active, with stock trading and transaction values in Shanghai and Shenzhen both increasing by about 1.1 times year-on-year.

Fifth, it stabilized expectations. Various macroeconomic policies have proven effective, not only driving a recovery in production demand but also stabilizing the expectations of business entities, thereby creating favorable conditions for economic recovery. Since the beginning of this year, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has been below the critical point during most months. However, it has continued to rebound since September, reaching 50.3% in November and staying within the high expansion range for two consecutive months. With this, the Production and Operation Expectation Index rebounded by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, showing an increase in companies' confidence with the future market.

In addition, during policy implementation, we focused on shoring up weak and key links, promoting green and low-carbon transformation, as well as ensuring and improving people's livelihoods. These efforts have laid a sound foundation for the sustained and healthy development of the economy. In the next stage, the combined effects of both existing and new policies are expected to emerge, with the effects of policies continuing to be seen. Of course, we must also note that the external environment remains complex and grim, and the internal impetus of the economy still needs to be stimulated. We must follow the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, make full use of various policies and effectively exert the effectiveness of policies, promoting economic growth, structural improvement as well as improved quality and efficiency. Thank you.

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