China.org.cn | January 8, 2025
Xing Huina:
The floor is now open for questions. Please state the name of the news outlet you work for before asking your question.
CCTV:
How do you view the economic performance in November? In general, what are the highlights and positive changes shown in the economic performance in November? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your questions. Under the combined effects of macroeconomic policies continuing to unfold, in November, production grew rapidly, demand continued to expand, employment and prices remained generally stable, the real estate and stock markets became more active, market expectations continued to improve, new quality productive forces developed steadily, and economic operations continued to recover. Specifically, the effects of macroeconomic policies can be summarized by a few distinguishing features: increased production, rising demand, stable employment, a rebounding market and improved quality.
"Increased production" primarily refers to the continued recovery of service and industrial sectors. From the perspective of industry, driven by policies related to large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods, industrial production has been rising steadily. In November, the value added of industries above a designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry grew by 7.6%, expanding 1 percentage point faster than the previous month and contributing nearly 50% to the growth in the value added of industries above a designated size. The service sector sustained its recovery trend, thanks to the accelerated turnover of social logistics and the implementation of policies aimed at boosting the capital market and promoting the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. In November, the service sector production index increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Although this was slightly lower than the previous month, it remained above 6%. This growth rate was the second highest recorded this year and was significantly higher than rates seen before October. The real estate, transportation, storage and postal industries' production indexes increased by 2.1 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month.
"Rising demand" primarily refers to the continued expansion of both consumption and investment. In terms of consumption, although the growth rate of total retail sales for consumer goods in November declined compared to the previous month due to the early launch of the "Double Eleven" online shopping festival, it was still faster than the average growth rate in the third quarter, with the momentum of consumption recovery remaining unchanged. Driven by the policy for consumer goods trade-ins, the sales of related products continued to grow rapidly. In November, the retail sales of home appliances, audiovisual equipment and furniture by units above the designated size maintained double-digit growth. In terms of investment, although investments in real estate declined, overall investment remained stable growth due to the effectiveness of policies provided to implement major national strategies, build security capacity in key areas and promote large-scale equipment renewals. From January to November, fixed asset investment increased by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining largely stable for four consecutive months. Manufacturing investment grew by 9.3%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth and providing strong support for overall investment.
"Stable employment" primarily refers to the overall stability of the employment situation. With the steady rebound of the economy and the implementation of employment support policies, urban employment remained generally stable and improvements were observed in employment of key population groups. In November, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5%, unchanged from the previous month and at a relatively low level for the year. The surveyed unemployment rate for rural migrant workers was 4.4%, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, while the surveyed unemployment rate for young people aged 16-24 also showed a decline.
"A rebounding market" primarily refers to the improvements in market supply-demand dynamics and expectations. An important indicator of changes in market supply and demand dynamics is commodity pricing. With influence from high temperatures and declining fresh food prices, the year-on-year growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI) in November saw a slight decrease compared to the previous month. However, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose at a faster pace compared to the previous month. In November, the core CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, up by 0.1 percentage point compared to October, marking the second consecutive month for growth rate expansion. At the same time, in November, the year-on-year decline of industrial producer prices narrowed, while the month-on-month change shifted from a decline to an increase, indicating positive changes in the supply-demand dynamics of industrial products. From the perspective of expectations, in November, real estate sales rebounded, stock market transactions were relatively active, the manufacturing PMI continued to rise and market expectations steadily improved, creating favorable conditions for economic recovery and growth.
"Improved quality" primarily refers to continuous improvement in economic operations. Localities and departments strengthened innovation-driven initiatives, actively developed the digital economy, and accelerated the green transition. All these efforts gradually paid off. The high-tech industry experienced relatively strong growth. From January to November, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above the designated size increased by 9% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the growth of industries above the designated size. Investment in high-tech industries grew by 8.8%, noticeably faster than the growth of total investment. The digital economy developed positively, and, as digital transformation continued to intensify, the production of digital products as well as the provision of digital services demonstrated relatively good growth momentum. In November, the added value of integrated circuit manufacturing increased by 20.7% year-on-year, while the production index for the information transmission, software and information technology service industries grew by 9.3%, all maintaining robust growth. The green transition was further promoted. Innovation and development in China's new energy sector have been effectively advanced, and the market competitiveness of green products continues to improve. In November, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cell products increased by 51.1% and 10.9% year-on-year, respectively, becoming key highlights of the green transition.
In general, with the effective implementation of macroeconomic policies, the national economy rebounded steadily in November, the foundation for stability was further consolidated, the momentum for progress was strengthened, and positive factors continued to increase. However, we must also recognize that the international environment is becoming increasingly complex and uncertain, domestic effective demand remains insufficient, and some companies are facing operational challenges. In the next stage, we will conscientiously implement the guiding principles of the Central Economic Work Conference, adopt more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, expand domestic demand, accelerate the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, promote sustained economic recovery and growth, and effectively safeguard and improve people's livelihoods. Thank you.