21st Century Business Herald:

China's external debt witnessed an overall increase in the first half of 2024. How does SAFE view this change with external debt? Thank you.

Li Hongyan:

Thank you. Mr. Jia will take this question.

Jia Ning:

Thank you for your question. The external debt of a country is an issue of great interest in both theory and practice. Based on the way debt is formed, China's external debt can be categorized into two types. The first type is external debt that is acquired by enterprises and banks through financing activities overseas. This is an objective consequence of fully utilizing domestic and international markets and resources, and is directly related to the development of cross-border trade and investment. The second type refers to the external debt accumulated through foreign capital's purchase of domestic bonds, which reflects global investors' demand for allocating renminbi assets. In recent years, as the renminbi becomes increasingly attractive to foreign investors, the second type of external debt has become the primary channel for the growth of the country's external debt.

In the first half of the year, China's external debt increased steadily. As of the end of June, the country's outstanding external debt totaled $2.54 trillion, an increase of $97.1 billion compared to the end of 2023, up 4%. For starters, China's economy has maintained steady growth and the comprehensive yield rate of renminbi bonds has also risen. Thus, foreign capitals have been steadily allocating renminbi bonds, with the net increase in holdings hitting a record high in the first half of the year and driving an increase of bond-related external debt of nearly $90 billion. This has been the primary driver for the increase in external debt. In addition, as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rise, domestic enterprises and banks have shown a slower pace with repaying external debts. Financing-related external debt, such as deposits, loans and trade credit, has started to rebound, increasing by over $8 billion in the first half of the year. Based on preliminary statistics, the scale of external debt in the third quarter remains stable overall.

China's external debt generally is moderate in scale and relatively low-risk in terms of repayment. First, the scale of external debt is basically compatible with the country's actual economic growth. In recent years, despite the sharp U-turn in the Fed's monetary policy and shifts in external financial conditions, China's external debt has remained generally stable, with the external debt-to-GDP ratio fluctuating mildly between 14-16%. Enterprises' cross-border financing has also effectively supported the growth of the real economy. Second, the risk of external debt repayment remains controllable. Four indicators – the liability ratio, the debt servicing ratio, the debt ratio, and the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves – are all within the internationally recognized thresholds. Third, the structure of China's external debt continues to improve. As of the end of June 2024, the proportion of renminbi external debt and middle- and long-term external debt were 49% and 44%, respectively, representing an increase of 13 and 3 percentage points compared with 2019. The risks associated with external debt maturity mismatch and currency mismatch both remain controllable and have significantly decreased.

Looking ahead, China's external debt is expected to maintain steady development. As the country's economy rebounds and its financial market opens up steadily, the role of renminbi in asset allocation will continue to grow and foreign capital's investment in renminbi bonds will keep rising. At the same time, as China's foreign trade and investment potential continues to be released, and the cost of external financing decreases due to the interest rate cut of the U.S., European countries and other developed economies, enterprises and other sectors' demand for external borrowing is expected to rebound gradually.

That concludes my response. Thank you.