Experts: Central Economic Work Conference shows strong resolve, boosts confidence

China's tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference held from Dec. 11 to 12 has demonstrated a strong determination to bolster economic growth and is expected to significantly boost market confidence, experts said.

According to the conference readout, China will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy next year while seeking better coordination across various areas.

"The scale of the policies aimed at stimulating the economy are unprecedented, reflecting the central leadership's strong resolve," John Gong, professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics. He noted that this was the first shift in monetary policy from prudent to moderately loose in over a decade.

"The emphasis on expanding demand through supportive macroeconomic policies next year is clear, and these policies are expected to significantly boost market confidence," said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Zhang Jianping, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation at China's Ministry of Commerce, also pointed out expanding domestic demand as a key highlight of the conference. He noted that China has increasingly relied on domestic demand in recent years, and the proposed fiscal and monetary policies will further stimulate effective demand.

The conference listed nine key tasks for the 2025 economic agenda, with the first task prioritizing vigorous efforts to increase consumption, enhance investment efficiency and broaden domestic demand. The conference also called for a campaign to stimulate consumption while reducing burdens on low- and middle-income groups.

"To expand domestic demand on all fronts, it is essential to systematically coordinate the relationship between investment and consumption. Consumption is the goal, while investment is the means to achieve it," Zhang Liqun said.

He explained that large-scale government investment in public goods is now necessary to boost consumption, adding that this approach will help increase business orders, stimulate production, improve employment and consequently boost consumption.

"There is enormous potential in consumption, particularly in services, to drive economic growth," Gong said, noting that consumption comprises less than 40% of China's GDP, well below that of developed countries.

In recent months, Chinese authorities unveiled a package of incremental policies to boost the economy. The measures focused on enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding effective domestic demand, supporting business operation, promoting the recovery of the property market, and invigorating capital markets.

Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Institute for Development Planning at Tsinghua University, noted a strong rebound in consumption, services and trade following the rollout of the policy package.

"The policies next year are expected to align with and build on this package," Dong said in an interview before the Central Economic Work Conference.

He noted that 2025, as the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan period and the primary drafting year for the 15th Five-Year Plan, will likely see major projects, policies and reforms introduced.

"China's macroeconomic governance always considers both short-term and long-term planning," Dong said, "These initiatives will strengthen economic measures and provide stability for development over the coming years."

"China will align its short-term economic growth goals with its 2035 objectives to implement measures that stabilize growth, employment, trade and foreign investment while ensuring steady economic progress," Zhang Jianping said.

"As policy effects continue to unfold and accumulate, conditions for economic recovery will steadily strengthen," Zhang Liqun said. "With support from various factors, China's economy is expected to see broad recovery and growth next year."