CRNTT:

Data shows that from January to October of this year, the average ratio of good air quality days in 339 cities at or above the prefectural level was 85.1%, down 1.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year, while the average ratio of days with heavy pollution and worse conditions was 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year on year, and the PM2.5 density went up 3.7% year on year. What is the reason for this situation? What is the MEE's prediction on the country's air quality status throughout the whole year and whether the annual target can be achieved? Thank you. 

Liu Bingjiang:

As you said, there have been some fluctuations in air quality across the country this year. Frankly speaking, being able to stabilize at this level has greatly enhanced our confidence in further improving air quality in the future. The significant reduction in socioeconomic activities during the pandemic, coupled with the three consecutive years of La Nina, resulted in a seven-microgram-per-cubic-meter decrease in PM2.5 concentrations in 2022 compared with 2019, which indeed improved the air quality. We have predicted that the PM2.5 density may rebound sharply this year. Our objective is that this year's PM2.5 density will increase by more than 10% compared to last year's density. But at the moment it has only increased by 3.6%, so we can say that the rate of increase has been stabilized. Therefore, we have become more confident in further improving air quality. 

When we say "stable," we mean that the PM2.5 density has only increased by 1 microgram per cubic meter year on year, which is basically the same as during the pandemic and down 12% compared with 2019. 2019 can be considered a normal year, but this year there has seen more extreme weather conditions. According to statistics from the China Meteorological Administration, there have been 17 rounds of dusty weather across the country this year, the most in the past decade and 50% higher than the average. More than five of these rounds were recorded as sandstorms or above in terms of intensity, which is about twice the average for the same period in the last decade. In particular, the strong sandstorm weather from March 19 to 23 affected more than 20 provinces, the density of PM2.5 and PM10 in many places in the north reached severe pollution levels, and the peak concentration of PM10 in Zhangjiakou exceeded 9,000 micrograms per cubic meter. Satellite observation statistics show that this year's dusty weather has affected an area of 5.29 million square kilometers in the country, more than half of China. As of the end of November, the dusty weather alone caused days marked with good air quality to decrease by 3.3 percentage points, causing the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 to increase by 1 microgram per cubic meter and 10 micrograms per cubic meter, respectively, making it the most impactful year in the past decade. After the pandemic, the increase in air pollutant emissions was also relatively large. For example, thermal power generation increased by 5.7%, output of ten non-ferrous metals increased by 7%, crude oil processing increased by 11.2% and road passenger and road freight transportation increased by 23.5% and 8.2%, respectively. The significant increase in economic activities led to an increase in pollutant emissions. Under the influence of these two factors, by the end of November, the country's concentration of PM2.5 rose only 3.6% year on year, or 1 microgram per cubic meter, which is better than this year's target and the timely progress outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), so we can say it's "stable." The concentration of PM2.5 is stable at this level, currently 29 micrograms per cubic meter. If there is no large-scale pollution by the end of the year, it is expected to be 30 micrograms per cubic meter, which means it is stable. 

Where is the "progress" in "steady progress"? In the three major regions of the country, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta region and the Fenwei Plain, the average concentration of PM2.5 has improved. This "steady progress" has strengthened our confidence, which is much better than predicted at the beginning of the year. The reason for the current situation is that since the beginning of this year, we have worked with relevant departments and localities to strengthen efforts to reduce emissions by means of updating facilities, adjusting industrial structures and energy structures as well as improving energy efficiency and saving energy consumption. At the beginning of this year, we believed that the uncertainty brought about by climatic anomalies would require more emission reductions to offset their impact. Because it is not the end of the year yet, all data has not yet been accumulated. For example, the ultra-low emission transformation of the steel industry has completed a total of 400 million tons nationwide, of which the amount completed this year is equal to the sum of the amounts completed in previous years. All the coke ovens below 4.3 meters in height within Shanxi province have been phased out this year, with a total production capacity reaching 23 million tons. This is a relatively large reduction in emissions. All long-chain steel production capacity in Shandong province's original "2+26" channel cities has been completely eliminated. For example, we are promoting clean heating in northern China, and have completed 2 million households this year. In terms of transportation structure adjustments, 65 key dedicated railway lines were built and have opened, and the national railway and water freight volume has increased by 6% year on year. A total of 24,000 new energy heavy trucks have been sold, an increase of 36.9% year on year. We have continued to carry out air supervision and assistance, establishing "online + offline" channels. This year, we have inspected 38,000 enterprises and targeted more than 11,000 prominent air-related environmental problems. Through the above measures, if there is no long-term, large-scale development in pollution within the next 20 days, the situation of seeking progress while maintaining stability is certain, which also strengthens our confidence in continuously improving air quality in the future. Thank you!