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SCIO press conference on national economic performance in Q1-Q3 2023

China.org.cn | November 16, 2023

Bloomberg News:

Could you give us some insights on the growth contribution in the third quarter from capital formation, consumption and net exports? Thank you.

Sheng Laiyun:

Thank you for your question. The contributions of the three major components to GDP growth are indeed a concern for many. In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure accounted for 83.2% of economic growth, propelling a 4.4 percentage point increase in GDP. Gross capital formation contributed 29.8%, driving a 1.6 percentage point increase in GDP. Meanwhile, net exports of goods and services detracted from growth by 13.0%, pulling GDP down by 0.7 percentage point. In the third quarter, due to the continuous rebound in consumption, a decline in exports, and a slowdown in investment growth, the economic growth engines saw a slight change in their impact pattern. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth increased, accounting for 94.8%, and boosting GDP growth by 4.6 percentage points. Gross capital formation contributed 22.3% to economic growth, increasing GDP by 1.1 percentage points. Net exports of goods and services had a contribution rate of -17.1%, pulling down GDP by 0.8 percentage point. These figures represent the contributions of the three major drivers of economic growth. Thank you.

Nanfang Daily, Nanfang Plus:

The National Day holiday, often dubbed the "Golden Week" holiday, has just ended, and consumption data from all parties have been released. We have noted that domestic tourism has increased compared with its level before the epidemic struck, which has led to an increase in consumption of catering, attractions, accommodation and other services. Do we expect a continuing rise in consumption in the fourth quarter? Will there be any policies to promote consumption in the near future? Thank you.

Sheng Laiyun:

I can assure you that consumption in the fourth quarter will continue to recover from that of the first three quarters.

First, in the first three quarters, the consumption of both goods and services, as well as household spending, continued to stabilize and revitalize. In this period, retail sales of services increased by 18.9% year on year, and the proportion of residents' per capita expenditure on services in per capita consumption expenditure rose by 2 percentage points year on year.

Second, the effects of consumption policies have become more evident. This year, efforts to stabilize growth and expand consumption have been prioritized. Relevant departments have introduced a series of policy initiatives to boost consumption, and local governments have stepped up their implementation. The impacts of these policies are expected to continue to unfold.

Third, the personal consumption base has been consolidated. Consumption is ultimately supported by income. The employment situation has generally improved this year. Personal income increased by 5.9% in the first three quarters, maintaining stable growth. This has laid a solid foundation for sustainable recovery and the growth of consumption in the future.

Fourth, the baseline for consumption-related indicators was low due to the impact of the epidemic in the fourth quarter of last year. For example, total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 2.7% year on year in the fourth quarter of last year, making the base effect conducive to an improvement in consumption data this year.

Based on these four reasons, I can assure you that household consumption will continue to recover in the fourth quarter. China possesses significant consumption potential and a large population. In addition, the country is at a critical stage of upgrading its consumption patterns. As the Chinese economy has shown encouraging signs of rebounding, overall consumption trends are expected to be positive. Of course, we need to emphasize that cultivating consumption capacity is crucial. We must continue to promote economic stability and growth, increase people's incomes, and fully leverage the basic role of consumption and the advantages of scale. Thank you.

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