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SCIO briefing on China's economy Q1-Q3

Economy

China.org.cnUpdated:  October 19, 2018

Mao Shengyong:

7. The employment situation remained stable, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate declining.

The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in September, 0.1 percentage point lower than both in August and in the same period of last year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate in 31 large cities was 4.7 percent in September, 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point lower than in August and the same period last year respectively. The surveyed unemployment rate for the major workforce aged 25 to 59 was 4.3 percent, unchanged from the previous month. By the end of the third quarter, the number of rural laborers forming the migrant work force had reached 181.35 million, 1.66 million more than the same period last year, for a gain of 0.9 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,710 yuan, up 7.3 percent year-on-year.

8. The increase in personal income kept pace with economic growth, while the ratio of urban to rural income decreased.

In the first three quarters, personal per capita disposable income totaled 21,035 yuan, an increase of 8.8 percent year-on-year in nominal terms, and 6.6 percent in real terms taking price factors into account. The real increase remained the same as that in the first half of this year, keeping pace with economic growth. Factoring for permanent residence, urban and rural per capita disposable income totaled 29,599 and 10,645 yuan respectively, with the nominal growth rates reaching 7.9 percent and 8.9 percent respectively, while real growth was 5.7 percent and 6.8 percent respectively after taking account of price factors. The ratio of urban to rural per capita disposable income was 2.78, a reduction of 0.03 compared to the same period of the previous year. The median figure for national per capita disposable income was 18,236 yuan, an increase of 8.7 percent year-on-year in nominal terms.

9. The industrial structure has been further improved and the fundamental role of consumption has been continuously enhanced.

The upgrading of industries has continued to progress. In the first three quarters, the value-added growth rate of the tertiary industry was 1.9 percentage points faster than that of secondary industry. It accounted for 53.1 percent of the GDP, an increase of 0.3 percentage point compared to the same period last year, and 12.7 percentage points higher than the secondary industry. 

The fundamental role of consumption has been continuously strengthened. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption spending to economic growth was 78.0 percent, 46.2 percentage points higher than the contribution from gross capital formation. 

The proportion of service consumption continued to increase. In the third quarter, service consumption accounted for 52.6 percent of the national residents' consumption spending, an increase of 0.2 percentage point year-on-year.

The investment structure has achieved continuous optimization. In the first three quarters, investments in the high-tech manufacturing industry increased 14.9 percent on a yearly basis. The growth rate was 9.5 percentage points higher than overall investment.

The trade structure has been further improved. In the first three quarters, the general trade of imports and exports increased by 13.5 percent, accounting for 58.4 percent of the overall total, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 7.8 percent, or 58.3 percent of total exports.

10. The effects of supply-side structural reform have continuously showed and new drivers of growth have developed fast.

The industrial capacity utilization rate has remained stable. In the first three quarters, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.6 percent, identical with last year. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rates of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and the coal mining and washing industry reached 78.7 percent and 70.1 percent respectively, 2.0 and 1.1 percentage points higher year-on-year.

Enterprise operational costs and their leverage ratio have dropped. From January to August, the cost per 100-yuan of main business revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 84.39 yuan, 0.35 yuan less than last year. At the end of August, the liability-asset ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.6 percent, down 0.5 percentage point year-on-year. 

The stocks of commercial buildings for sale have continued to decrease. At the end of September, the total floor space of commercial buildings for sale dropped by 13.0 percent year-on-year.

More investments have been made in key industries to address inadequacies. In the first three quarters, the investment in ecological preservation and environmental treatment and agriculture grew year-on-year by 33.7 percent and 12.4 percent respectively, 28.3 and 7.0 percentage points faster than the average growth of total investments in all fields respectively.

Green development has advanced steadily. In the first three quarters, the energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product dropped by 3.1 percent year-on-year.

New industries have enjoyed comparatively fast growth. In the first three quarters, the added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries increased year-on-year by 11.8 percent and 8.6 percent respectively, 5.4 and 2.2 percentage points faster than industrial enterprises above designated size. The added value of emerging strategic industries increased by 8.8 percent year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points faster than that of industrial enterprises above designated size.

New products have continued to be developed rapidly. For example, in the first three quarters, the output of new energy vehicles increased by 54.8 percent year-on-year and that of integrated circuits 11.7 percent.

New forms of businesses have developed vigorously. In the first three quarters, online retail sales totaled 6.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.0 percent year-on-year. Among them, online retail sales of physical goods reached 4.79 trillion yuan, up 27.7 percent and  accounting for 17.5 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods. This represented an increase of 3.5 percentage points over the previous year. Online retail sales of non-physical goods reached 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.8 percent.

Generally speaking, in the first three quarters, the Chinese economy operated within an appropriate range. Economic performance was stable, with improved momentum; the economic structure was further adjusted. The quality of development continued to improve. More efforts were made to promote reform and opening up, and the public enjoyed more benefits from development.

Meanwhile, there were several issues to be noted: We were confronted with more external challenges. The difficulties in adjusting the domestic economic structure remained. Despite a stable performance, the national economy was confronted with possible changes and greater downward pressures. 

As far as the next step is concerned, we will focus on promoting high-quality development and continue the reform and opening-up campaign. In the current supply side structural reform, the key task will be to address certain inadequacies. We seek to expand effective market demand. We will ensure a stable development of the job market, the financial market, the foreign trade sector, the foreign capital sector and the investment sector, and keep overall expectations stable. We will promote stable and healthy economic development. And we will be able to achieve the main economic and social development targets set for this year.

Hu Kaihong:

Thank you Mr. Mao. Now, the floor is open to questions. Please identify the media outlet you represent before asking questions.

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